Match Info

Premier League - Round 32

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Emirates Stadium (London)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Arsenal		Bournemouth

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.33	7
	1.49	4.65	6.5
	1.49	4.8	6.9
	1.51	4.58	6.67	Watch
	1.44	4.33	7.5
	1.48	4.48	7.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.41)	4.53 ↓ (4.91)	7.03 ↓ (7.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal
65.1%

Draw
21.2%

Bournemouth
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68%

19.5%

12.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.3%

18.9%

12.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Bournemouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arsenal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.7%	5.9%	4.4%

Arsenal - Bournemouth Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -3 - Bournemouth (100.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Arsenal will win (59 of 65 users predict this - 90.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.73% – 97.81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arsenal will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Bournemouth (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raya D. (G) 4. White B. 2. Saliba W. 6. Gabriel 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 36. Zubimendi M. 41. Rice D. (C) 20. Madueke N. 29. Havertz K. 11. Martinelli G. 14. Gyökeres V.	1. Petrovic D. (G) 20. Jimenez A. 23. Hill J. 5. Senesi M. 3. Truffert A. 8. Scott A. 10. Christie R. (C) 37. Rayan 22. Kroupi E. J. 16. Tavernier M. 9. Evanilson
Substitutes
13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 56. Dowman M. 10. Eze E. 9. Gabriel Jesus 5. Hincapie P. 3. Mosquera C. 16. Norgaard C. 89. Salmon M. 19. Trossard L.	12. Adams T. 21. Adli A. 7. Brooks D. 18. Diakite B. 11. Doak B. 29. Mandas C. (G) 15. Smith A. 27. Toth A. 26. Unal E.
Coaches
Arteta M.	Iraola A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Kroupi E. J. ⚽,
35', 1 - 1, Gyökeres V. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Havertz K. ↓, Eze E. ↑,
54', Madueke N. ↓, Dowman M. ↑,
54', Martinelli G. ↓, Trossard L. ↑,
70', Christie R. ↓, Adams T. ↑,
70', Rayan ↓, Brooks D. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Scott A. ⚽, Evanilson (A),
76', White B. ↓, Mosquera C. ↑,
76', Zubimendi M. ↓, Gabriel Jesus ↑,
77', Truffert A. 🟨,
79', Kroupi E. J. 🟨,
80', Gyökeres V. 🟨,
85', Kroupi E. J. ↓, Toth A. ↑,
90', Evanilson ↓, Unal E. ↑,
90', Jimenez A. ↓, Smith A. ↑,
90+6', Hill J. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Bournemouth may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Arsenal is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Arsenal: Eze E. (Calf Injury) Hincapie P. (Muscle Injury) Merino M. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Bournemouth: Cook L. (Hamstring Injury) Kluivert J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Arsenal: Odegaard M. (Muscle Injury) Saka B. (Injury) Timber J. (Ankle Injury) Trossard L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Bournemouth: Adams T. (Hamstring Injury) Soler J. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 14 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 44:19. (average 2.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Arsenal won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:7. (average 2.6:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	10:5	5	15
17	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	7:13	-6	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal FC
UEFA Champions League
07.04.26	Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
04.04.26	Southampton - Arsenal	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
22.03.26	Arsenal - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.03.26	Arsenal - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
14.03.26	Arsenal - Everton	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLLWW
- AFC Bournemouth
English Premier League
20.03.26	Bournemouth - Manchester United	2:2 ✺
14.03.26	Burnley - Bournemouth	0:0 ✺
03.03.26	Bournemouth - Brentford	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Bournemouth - Sunderland	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	West Ham United - Bournemouth	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TTTTT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
03.01.26	Bournemouth - Arsenal	2:3
03.05.25	Arsenal - Bournemouth	1:2
19.10.24	Bournemouth - Arsenal	2:0
Club Friendly
24.07.24	Arsenal - Bournemouth	2:1 penalties
English Premier League
04.05.24	Arsenal - Bournemouth	3:0
30.09.23	Bournemouth - Arsenal	0:4
04.03.23	Arsenal - Bournemouth	3:2

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