Match Info

FA Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

Referee: Barrott S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Southampton		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	6.25	5	1.39
	7.4	4.95	1.41
	7.44	5.2	1.4
	7.41	5.3	1.41	Watch
	6.5	4.6	1.4
	6.79	5.16	1.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.97 ↓ (11.04)	5.04 ↓ (5.83)	1.41 ↑ (1.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
13.7%

Draw
18.9%

Arsenal
67.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

8.5%

16.1%

75.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Southampton's performance.

Arsenal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arsenal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	6.7%	86.7%

Southampton - Arsenal Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - S`hampton (6.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 - Arsenal (3.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Arsenal will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. S`hampton (votes: 1 - 25%). Arsenal (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Peretz D. (G) 14. Bree J. 6. Harwood-Bellis T. (C) 15. Wood N. 3. Manning R. 48. Bragg C. 20. Jander C. 18. Fellows T. 10. Azaz F. 13. Scienza L. 11. Stewart R.	13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 4. White B. 3. Mosquera C. 6. Gabriel 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 16. Norgaard C. 56. Dowman M. 29. Havertz K. 11. Martinelli G. 9. Gabriel Jesus
Substitutes
19. Archer C. 24. Charles S. 23. Edozie S. 9. Larin C. 25. Long G. (G) 49. Oyekunle N. 17. Quarshie J. 46. Robinson J. 28. Romeu O.	33. Calafiori R. 14. Gyökeres V. 71. Harriman-Annous A. 20. Madueke N. 76. O'Neill C. 1. Raya D. (G) 2. Saliba W. 89. Salmon M. 36. Zubimendi M.
Coaches
Eckert T.	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', Manning R. 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Stewart R. ⚽, Bree J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', Gabriel Jesus ↓, Gyökeres V. ↑,
60', Lewis-Skelly M. ↓, Calafiori R. ↑,
61', Odegaard M. ↓, Madueke N. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Gyökeres V. ⚽, Havertz K. (A),
70', Stewart R. ↓, Larin C. ↑,
71', Scienza L. ↓, Edozie S. ↑,
73', Gabriel ↓, Saliba W. ↑,
76', Bragg C. ↓, Charles S. ↑,
79', Havertz K. ↓, Zubimendi M. ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Charles S. ⚽, Fellows T. (A),
90', Jander C. 🟨,
90+4', Martinelli G. 🟨,
90+7', Manning R. ↓, Quarshie J. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 1.

S`hampton has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Arsenal is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Arsenal is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in S`hampton: Downes F. (Yellow Cards) Matsuki K. (Yellow Cards) Roerslev Rasmussen M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Welington (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Arsenal: Eze E. (Calf Injury) Merino M. (Foot Injury) Odegaard M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: McCarthy A. (Wrist Injury) Robinson J. (Thigh Injury) Scienza L. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Arsenal: Gabriel (Knee Injury) Hincapie P. (Injury) Madueke N. (Knee Injury) Rice D. (Injury) Saka B. (Injury) Saliba W. (Ankle Injury) Trossard L. (Hip Injury) Zubimendi M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 21:37. (average 1.1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, S`hampton won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:18. (average 0.9:1.8).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Arsenal: 12.23% Southampton: 0.51%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English League Championship
21.03.26	Southampton - Oxford United	2:0 ✺
18.03.26	Southampton - Norwich City	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Coventry City - Southampton	1:2 ✺
11.03.26	West Bromwich Albion - Southampton	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
08.03.26	Fulham - Southampton	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.5 WWWTW
- Arsenal FC
English League Cup
22.03.26	Arsenal - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.03.26	Arsenal - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
14.03.26	Arsenal - Everton	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
07.03.26	Mansfield Town - Arsenal	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
25.05.25	Southampton - Arsenal	1:2
05.10.24	Arsenal - Southampton	3:1
21.04.23	Arsenal - Southampton	3:3
23.10.22	Southampton - Arsenal	1:1
16.04.22	Southampton - Arsenal	1:0
11.12.21	Arsenal - Southampton	3:0
26.01.21	Southampton - Arsenal	1:3

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