Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 16

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona (Avellaneda)

Referee: Pafundi J. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Arsenal Sarandí		Deportivo Madryn

	1	X	2
	3.9	2.8	2.25	Watch
	3.8	2.65	2.15
	3.9	2.7	2.2	Watch
	4.23	2.72	2.24
	4.14	2.66	2.24	Watch
	4.4	2.75	2
	3.97	2.66	2.2
	3.9	2.7	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.03 ↑ (3.1)	2.71 ↑ (2.7)	2.19 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Sarandí
23.1%

Draw
34.4%

Deportivo Madryn
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

33.6%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

34.2%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Sarandí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arsenal Sarandí's form might have worsened.

Deportivo Madryn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportivo Madryn's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arsenal Sarandí, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Madryn than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deportivo Madryn, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	87.5%	0%

Arsenal Sarandí - Deportivo Madryn Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Arsenal Sarandí will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 64.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pourtau J. (G) 4. Purita E. 2. Roselli N. 6. Sosa A. 3. Cocca M. 8. Trombini M. 5. Vila J. 10. Fernandez E. 7. Bordagaray F. 9. Klusener G. 11. Rius C.	1. Bonnin Y. (C) 4. Sosa A. 2. Minissale P. 6. Gutierrez A. 3. Martinez D. 8. Perez B. 5. Recalde F. 10. Solis N. 11. Rivero G. 7. Crego D. 9. Silba L.
Substitutes
17. Abbruzzesse M. 14. Cabrera I. 15. Colletta T. 19. Echevarria F. 18. Frascone N. 16. Lucero M. 12. Mekbel F. (G) 20. Sabatini I. 13. Vera M.	16. Cascini B. 13. Giacopuzzi F. 12. Hass J. (G) 17. Jara E. 19. Juncos B. 18. Nouet M. 15. Pruzzo L. 20. Torres G. 14. Yossen T.
Coaches
Franco D.	Gracian L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Vila J. ⚽,
32', Sosa A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Minissale P. 🟨,
56', Martinez D. ↓, Juncos B. ↑,
60', Bordagaray F. ↓, Echevarria F. ↑,
60', Klusener G. ↓, Sabatini I. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Recalde F. ⚽,
65', Rius C. ↓, Frascone N. ↑,
71', Rivero G. 🟨,
72', Perez B. ↓, Jara E. ↑,
73', Cocca M. ↓, Lucero M. ↑,
73', Purita E. ↓, Vera M. ↑,
82', Roselli N. 🟨,
90+3', Vera M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Recent form of Arsenal Sarandí has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Deportivo Madryn has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Deportivo Madryn may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Deportivo Madryn is a strong favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
18.05.25	Deportivo Maipú - Arsenal Sarandí	1:1 ✺
09.05.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Gimnasia y Tiro	0:0 ✺
04.05.25	Tristán Suárez - Arsenal Sarandí	3:1 ✺
26.04.25	Arsenal Sarandí - San Martín de Tucumán	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	Güemes - Arsenal Sarandí	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TTLLL
- Deportivo Madryn
Argentinian Primera Nacional
18.05.25	Deportivo Madryn - All Boys	2:1 ✺
11.05.25	Alvarado - Deportivo Madryn	0:2 ✺
03.05.25	Los Andes - Deportivo Madryn	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	Deportivo Madryn - Deportivo Maipú	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Deportivo Madryn	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWLTT

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