Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 14

Date: 9 May 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona (Avellaneda)

Referee: Acita F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports, TyC Sports Play
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Arsenal Sarandí		Gimnasia y Tiro

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.7	3.2	Watch
	2.65	2.7	2.87
	2.6	2.55	3.3	Watch
	2.71	2.57	3.42
	2.7	2.5	3.39	Watch
	2.7	2.7	2.9
	2.57	2.71	3.22	Watch
	2.6	2.55	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.42)	2.62 ↓ (2.79)	3.2 ↓ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Sarandí
35.4%

Draw
35.5%

Gimnasia y Tiro
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

33.1%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

32.4%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Sarandí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Gimnasia y Tiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gimnasia y Tiro than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	70%	0%

Arsenal Sarandí - Gimnasia y Tiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Arsenal Sarandí will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal Sarandí (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Gimnasia y Tiro (1.97) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal Sarandí (votes: 2 - 50%). Gimnasia y Tiro (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pourtau J. (G) 2. Roselli N. 6. Caceres R. 3. Cocca M. 4. Purita E. 8. Trombini M. 5. Vila J. 10. Fernandez E. 11. Serrano V. 7. Bordagaray F. 9. Klusener G.	1. Abadia F. (G) 4. Chaves I. F. (C) 2. Guanini M. 6. Diaz G. 3. Villarreal R. 8. Rojas F. 5. Sivetti F. 10. Busse W. 11. Rinaldi N. 7. Aguirre J. 9. Contin N.
Substitutes
14. Cabrera I. 15. Colletta T. 16. Frascone N. 19. Lopez M. 12. Mekbel F. (G) 17. Rius C. 18. Sabatini I. 13. Vera M. 20. Villagra C.	12. Cosentino F. (G) 18. Galetto J. 17. Heredia F. 15. Keko 19. Mendez J. 13. Monti I. 20. Morello M. 16. Olivera L. 14. Tallura A.
Coaches
Franco D.	Quiroz F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Vila J. 🟨,
27', Busse W. 🟨,
34', Rojas F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Villarreal R. 🟨,
54', Klusener G. 🟨,
56', Serrano V. ↓, Villagra C. ↑,
56', Trombini M. ↓, Rius C. ↑,
61', Busse W. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
65', Klusener G. ↓, Sabatini I. ↑,
65', Bordagaray F. ↓, Frascone N. ↑,
67', Roselli N. 🟨,
72', Sivetti F. 🟨,
74', Villarreal R. ↓, Heredia F. ↑,
74', Sivetti F. ↓, Morello M. ↑,
78', Vila J. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
83', 🟨,
83', Abadia F. 🟨,
84', 🟨,
85', Rinaldi N. ↓, Keko ↑,
85', Chaves I. F. ↓, Galetto J. ↑,
86', Diaz G. 🟨,
89', Keko 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 12).

Arsenal Sarandí has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Gimnasia y Tiro is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Arsenal Sarandí won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Including home match between the teams, Arsenal Sarandí won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
04.05.25	Tristán Suárez - Arsenal Sarandí	3:1 ✺
26.04.25	Arsenal Sarandí - San Martín de Tucumán	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	Güemes - Arsenal Sarandí	1:0 ✺
14.04.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Patronato Parana	0:1 ✺
07.04.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Arsenal Sarandí	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Gimnasia y Tiro
Argentinian Primera Nacional
04.05.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - All Boys	0:0 ✺
27.04.25	Alvarado - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Deportivo Madryn	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Deportivo Maipú - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Los Andes - Gimnasia y Tiro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 TLTLT

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