Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 13

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio 20 de Octubre (Tristan Suarez)

Referee: Broggi J. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, TyC Sports Play
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DSports 1
Venezuela	DSports 1


	Tristán Suárez		Arsenal Sarandí

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.4	5	Watch
	1.75	3	5.25
	1.76	3.15	5.2	Watch
	1.78	3.08	5.97
	1.77	3.04	5.78	Watch
	1.7	3.1	5.5
	1.75	3.06	5.42
	1.76	3.15	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.58)	3.12 ↓ (3.65)	5.42 ↓ (6.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tristán Suárez
53.1%

Draw
29.8%

Arsenal Sarandí
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

25.6%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

24.9%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tristán Suárez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tristán Suárez's form might have worsened.

Arsenal Sarandí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tristán Suárez than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tristán Suárez, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Tristán Suárez - Arsenal Sarandí Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tristán Suárez will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sumavil N. (G) 4. Guillen M. 2. Ostachuk P. 6. Taron M. 3. Pantaleone N. 8. Villegas L. 5. Berges F. 10. Ruiz P. 7. Fernandez M. 9. Sosa A. 11. Veliez A.	1. Pourtau J. (G) 4. Vera M. 2. Roselli N. 6. Caceres R. 3. Cabrera I. 8. Trombini M. 5. Vila J. 10. Fernandez E. 11. Serrano V. 7. Rius C. 9. Klusener G.
Substitutes
19. Almiron E. 17. Boasso F. 13. Guzman M. 18. Magnotta S. 12. Mendive J. (G) 15. Nouet F. 16. Romero C. 20. Sayago D. 14. Steimbach A.	16. Abbruzzesse M. 14. Bernardi B. 19. Bordagaray F. 15. Colletta T. 12. Mekbel F. (G) 13. Purita E. 18. Sabatini I. 20. Scaglia Lopez M. 17. Villagra C.
Coaches
Martinez J.	Franco D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', Ostachuk P. 🟨,
20', Caceres R. 🟨,
22', 1 - 0, Ruiz P. (Pen),
26', 1 - 1, Ostachuk P. (Own goal),
44', Vila J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Vila J. ↓, Purita E. ↑,
48', Veliez A. 🟨,
68', Veliez A. ↓, Almiron E. ↑,
68', Fernandez M. ↓, Steimbach A. ↑,
73', Sosa A. ↓, Sayago D. ↑,
78', Rius C. ↓, Sabatini I. ↑,
78', Klusener G. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Almiron E. ⚽,
80', Serrano V. ↓, Bordagaray F. ↑,
80', Fernandez E. ↓, Bernardi B. ↑,
87', 3 - 1, Almiron E. ⚽,
90', Villegas L. ↓, Romero C. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Tristán Suárez is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Arsenal Sarandí has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Arsenal Sarandí may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tristán Suárez is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tristán Suárez won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Including home match between the teams, Tristán Suárez won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Tristán Suárez
Argentinian Primera Nacional
28.04.25	All Boys - Tristán Suárez	0:2 ✺
19.04.25	Tristán Suárez - Alvarado	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Deportivo Madryn - Tristán Suárez	0:0 ✺
05.04.25	Tristán Suárez - Deportivo Maipú	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Tristán Suárez	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWTTT
- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.04.25	Arsenal Sarandí - San Martín de Tucumán	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	Güemes - Arsenal Sarandí	1:0 ✺
14.04.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Patronato Parana	0:1 ✺
07.04.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Arsenal Sarandí	2:0 ✺
30.03.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Club Almagro	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
06.10.24	Tristán Suárez - Arsenal Sarandí	2:0
19.05.24	Arsenal Sarandí - Tristán Suárez	0:2

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