Match Info

ARGENTINA: LIGA PROFESIONAL - ROUND 17

Date: 18 May 2023, Thursday

Location: Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona (Avellaneda)

Referee: Espinoza F. (Arg)


	Arsenal Sarandí		Independiente

	1	X	2
	4	3.3	2	Watch
	3.8	3.2	2
	3.65	3.1	2.2
	4.19	3.27	2.04
	3.1	3	2.45
	3.95	3.28	2	Watch
	3.75	3.2	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.78 ↑ (3)	3.19 ↑ (3)	2.1 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Sarandí
25.1%

Draw
29.7%

Independiente
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.3%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

30.8%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Sarandí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arsenal Sarandí's form might have worsened.

Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Independiente's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15%	60%	25%

Arsenal Sarandí - Independiente Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Arsenal Sarandí will win (votes: 3 - 15%). Independiente will win (votes: 5 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.5% – 81.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 27 and 22).

Arsenal Sarandí has the most likely position - 28 (39.65%), project points - 22, currently - 11, a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Independiente has the most likely position - 21 (6.57%), project points - 32, currently - 17, a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arsenal Sarandí won 1.

Arsenal Sarandí is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Independiente is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Independiente will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Independiente: Marcone I. (Injury) Marquez De Meneses R. L. (Injury) Pozzo T. A. (Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches Arsenal Sarandí won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 14-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Arsenal Sarandí won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.05.23	Newells Old Boys - Arsenal Sarandí	2:0 ✺
08.05.23	Arsenal Sarandí - Gimnasia La Plata	0:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
02.05.23	Arsenal Sarandí - Villa Mitre	1:2 penalties ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.04.23	Huracán Buenos Aires - Arsenal Sarandí	2:1 ✺
22.04.23	Arsenal Sarandí - Unión Santa Fe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLLLW
- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.05.23	Independiente - Tigre	2:1 ✺
06.05.23	Argentinos Juniors - Independiente	2:2 ✺
30.04.23	Independiente - Belgrano	2:0 ✺
23.04.23	River Plate - Independiente	2:0 ✺
16.04.23	Independiente - Racing	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
01.10.22	Arsenal Sarandí - Independiente	0:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
15.02.22	Independiente - Arsenal Sarandí	1:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.11.21	Independiente - Arsenal Sarandí	3:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
03.01.21	Independiente - Arsenal Sarandí	3:4
Argentinian Liga Profesional
17.02.20	Independiente - Arsenal Sarandí	1:1
09.12.17	Arsenal Sarandí - Independiente	1:2
23.04.17	Arsenal Sarandí - Independiente	0:2

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