Match Info

FNL - Round 15

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Arsenal (Tula) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Cheremnykh M. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belarus	17:00	Sport TV


	Arsenal Tula		KAMAZ

	1	X	2
	2.13	3.24	3.73
	2.10	3.20	3.65
	2.07	3.20	3.65	Watch
	2.07	3.20	3.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.12)	3.21 ↓ (3.54)	3.56 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Tula
44.6%

Draw
29.1%

KAMAZ
26.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.9%

26.8%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

28.2%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Tula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

KAMAZ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KAMAZ than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Arsenal Tula - KAMAZ Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. Melikhov A. (G) 82. Alekhin A. 24. Gotsuk K. (C) 4. Penchikov D. 77. Plotnikov D. 22. Uridia G. 8. Shamkin D. 14. Brnovic M. 23. Melekestsev T. 19. Glushkov N. 11. Magomedov R.	31. Anisimov A. (C) 5. Ratnikov S. 67. Tkachuk R. 15. Burko M. 27. Manuylov R. 10. Zashchepkin R. 83. Laykin M. 99. Akbashev R. 79. Semenov V. 37. Voronin E. 25. Uridia M.
Substitutes
25. Biryukov A. 31. Bolshakov K. 9. Davidyan D. 71. Efremov A. 35. Enin I. 17. Gorbunov I. 44. Isaenko O. 45. Karmaev N. 5. Krashevskiy Y. 36. Levashov M. (G) 75. Zhamaletdinov T. 10. Zhigulev I.	19. Bogdanets M. 8. Dolgopolov E. 65. Gulko I. 6. Kalistratov T. 11. Kokotun A. 9. Moseychuk I. 13. Rybalchenko N. (G) 22. Solodukhin A. 76. Sukhanov A. 28. Sultonov M. 30. Zamerets E. (G)
Coaches
Alenichev D.	Khazov A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Manuylov R. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Melekestsev T. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 3)
46', Manuylov R. ↓, Sukhanov A. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Semenov V. ⚽,
56', 1 - 2, Uridia M. ⚽,
61', Uridia G. ↓, Isaenko O. ↑,
61', Glushkov N. ↓, Gorbunov I. ↑,
63', Voronin E. ↓, Sultonov M. ↑,
65', 1 - 3, Sukhanov A. ⚽,
67', Isaenko O. 🟨,
68', Plotnikov D. ↓, Davidyan D. ↑,
68', Shamkin D. ↓, Biryukov A. ↑,
75', Uridia M. ↓, Bogdanets M. ↑,
75', Semenov V. ↓, Moseychuk I. ↑,
80', 2 - 3, Magomedov R. ⚽,
88', 3 - 3, Brnovic M. ⚽,
88', Magomedov R. ↓, Zhamaletdinov T. ↑,
90+5', 4 - 3, Brnovic M. ⚽,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 11th and 14th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 2.

Recent results have been tough for Arsenal (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by KAMAZ have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Arsenal could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Arsenal holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Arsenal has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:5 (averaging 0.9:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Arsenal against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 5:2 goals (averaging 1:0.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Arsenal Tula	15	5	4	6	19:29	-10	19
15	Kamaz	15	3	4	8	19:27	-8	13

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

Arsenal Tula: 0.8% Kamaz: 0.8%

Last Results with these Odds

Arsenal Tula - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 44.87%, but this team recently wins 8% of matches with these odds.

KAMAZ - the odds 3.36 are the expected chance of winning is 28.29%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Tula
Russian FNL
17.10.26	Ufa - Arsenal Tula	2:0 ✺
09.10.26	Arsenal Tula - Spartak Kostroma	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
04.10.26	CSKA Moscow - Arsenal Tula	3:1 ✺
Russian FNL
16.09.26	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Arsenal Tula	3:1 ✺
13.09.26	Arsenal Tula - SKA Khabarovsk	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWLLT
- KAMAZ Naberezhnye Chelny
Russian FNL
17.10.26	KAMAZ - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	2:1 ✺
10.10.26	SKA Khabarovsk - KAMAZ	3:3 ✺
18.09.26	Shinnik - KAMAZ	0:1 ✺
14.09.26	KAMAZ - Chelyabinsk	1:1 ✺
Russian Cup
09.09.26	Dynamo Kirov - KAMAZ	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
27.02.26	KAMAZ - Arsenal Tula	1:1
19.07.25	Arsenal Tula - KAMAZ	1:1
01.03.25	KAMAZ - Arsenal Tula	2:1
20.07.24	Arsenal Tula - KAMAZ	1:0
25.11.23	Arsenal Tula - KAMAZ	2:0
21.08.23	KAMAZ - Arsenal Tula	0:0
27.05.23	Arsenal Tula - KAMAZ	0:1

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