Match Info

FNL - Round 12

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Tsentralnyi Stadion (Krasnoyarsk)

Referee: Anopa A. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk		Arsenal Tula

	1	X	2
	2.09	3.40	3.67
	2.06	3.35	3.60
	2.13	3.30	3.38	Watch
	2.03	3.10	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.22)	3.29 ↑ (3.17)	3.49 ↑ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Yenisey Krasnoyarsk
44.9%

Draw
28.4%

Arsenal Tula
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

29.6%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

26.7%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yenisey Krasnoyarsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Arsenal Tula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yenisey Krasnoyarsk than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Yenisey Krasnoyarsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Arsenal Tula Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Antipin S. (G) 25. Shershov N. 55. Bogatyrev N. 7. Chukanov A. 33. Maslovskiy A. 6. Batyrev A. 8. Kanaplin A. 18. Nadolskiy A. 21. Ivanov E. (C) 87. Mazurin A. 27. Ratkovic L.	42. Melikhov A. (G) 44. Isaenko O. 82. Alekhin A. 4. Penchikov D. (C) 45. Karmaev N. 21. Razdorskikh N. 7. Tamarindo 14. Brnovic M. 8. Shamkin D. 19. Glushkov N. 11. Magomedov R.
Substitutes
10. Aliyev A. 22. Gyurdzhan A. 62. Kravtsov V. 77. Ogienko R. 75. Okladnikov A. 1. Oparin M. (G) 81. Pechura R. 57. Shupyakov E. 39. Sorokin A. (G) 9. Tlekhugov M.	25. Biryukov A. 53. Grigorjev D. 5. Krashevskiy Y. 52. Kuzin A. 36. Levashov M. (G) 23. Melekestsev T. 18. Tsulaya M. (G) 22. Uridia G. 75. Zhamaletdinov T. 10. Zhigulev I.
Coaches
Molchanov V.	Alenichev D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', Kanaplin A. 🟨,
27', 0 - 1, Magomedov R. ⚽,
32', Mazurin A. 🟨,
38', Karmaev N. 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Nadolskiy A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Ratkovic L. ↓, Okladnikov A. ↑,
62', Tamarindo 🟨,
63', 🟨,
64', Magomedov R. ↓, Melekestsev T. ↑,
64', Brnovic M. ↓, Zhigulev I. ↑,
66', Mazurin A. ↓, Tlekhugov M. ↑,
68', 2 - 1, Okladnikov A. ⚽,
72', Kanaplin A. ↓, Pechura R. ↑,
76', Alekhin A. 🟨,
76', Ivanov E. 🟨,
77', Shershov N. ↓, Gyurdzhan A. ↑,
78', 3 - 1, Okladnikov A. ⚽,
80', Tamarindo ↓, Zhamaletdinov T. ↑,
80', Glushkov N. ↓, Grigorjev D. ↑,
90+1', 🟨,
90+2', Karmaev N. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Yenisey won 2.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Yenisey may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Yenisey might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Yenisey won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 15:22. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Yenisey won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 0.9:1).

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

Arsenal Tula: 0.78% Yenisey: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Yenisey	12	3	5	4	15:20	-5	14
12	Arsenal Tula	12	3	4	5	12:22	-10	13

Last Results with these Odds

Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 42.22%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Arsenal Tula - the odds 3.34 are the expected chance of winning is 28.13%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Yenisey Krasnoyarsk
Russian FNL
13.09.26	Rotor - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	4:0 ✺
Russian Cup
09.09.26	Druzhba Maykop - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	1:2 penalties ✺
Russian FNL
05.09.26	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	0:2 ✺
30.08.26	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Shinnik	0:0 ✺
23.08.26	Ufa - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LWLTL
- Arsenal Tula
Russian FNL
13.09.26	Arsenal Tula - SKA Khabarovsk	2:2 ✺
Russian Cup
08.09.26	Tekstilshchik Ivanovo - Arsenal Tula	1:0 ✺
Russian FNL
05.09.26	Volga Ulyanovsk - Arsenal Tula	3:0 ✺
29.08.26	Arsenal Tula - Ural	2:2 ✺
24.08.26	Veles Moscow - Arsenal Tula	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
11.05.26	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Arsenal Tula	1:0
16.08.25	Arsenal Tula - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	2:2
30.11.24	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Arsenal Tula	2:0
05.08.24	Arsenal Tula - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	2:1
19.11.23	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Arsenal Tula	0:2
07.08.23	Arsenal Tula - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	2:0
17.03.23	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Arsenal Tula	1:0

Upcoming Matches