Match Info

FNL - Round 14

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: BetBoom Arena (Ufa) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Medvedev S. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belarus	14:00	Sport TV


	Ufa		Arsenal Tula

	1	X	2
	2.54	3.20	2.99
	2.50	3.10	2.95
	2.49	3.18	2.83	Watch
	2.39	3.05	2.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.7)	3.13 ↑ (3.07)	2.87 ↑ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ufa
37.6%

Draw
29.8%

Arsenal Tula
32.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.9%

30.7%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

30.5%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ufa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Arsenal Tula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ufa than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Ufa - Arsenal Tula Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Belenov A. (C) 2. Cherov V. 5. Kutin D. 99. Evdokimov A. 43. Gilyazetdinov A. 6. Tarba Z. 9. Lipovoy D. 8. Isaev S. 88. Ageyan M. 70. Ortiz D. 11. Yakuev M.	42. Melikhov A. (G) 4. Penchikov D. 24. Gotsuk K. (C) 35. Enin I. 77. Plotnikov D. 25. Biryukov A. 8. Shamkin D. 14. Brnovic M. 22. Uridia G. 23. Melekestsev T. 11. Magomedov R.
Substitutes
23. Akhatov D. 7. Davlitgereev A. 10. Gongadze G. 15. Khabalov A. 69. Khanenko I. 1. Kraykov T. (G) 19. Mayorov E. 17. Ozmanov D. 97. Polesovshchikov A. 20. Shipunov T. 79. Troyanov K. 22. Yusupov Z.	82. Alekhin A. 9. Davidyan D. 71. Efremov A. 19. Glushkov N. 17. Gorbunov I. 45. Karmaev N. 5. Krashevskiy Y. 36. Levashov M. (G) 18. Tsulaya M. (G) 75. Zhamaletdinov T. 10. Zhigulev I.
Coaches
Tetradze O.	Alenichev D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Ortiz D. (Penalty Awarded),
27', Brnovic M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Evdokimov A. 🟨,
52', Penchikov D. 🟨,
52', Ortiz D. (Penalty Awarded),
58', 2 - 0, Lipovoy D. ⚽,
59', Uridia G. ↓, Davidyan D. ↑,
60', Enin I. ↓, Alekhin A. ↑,
60', Shamkin D. ↓, Gorbunov I. ↑,
65', Biryukov A. 🟨,
68', Melekestsev T. ↓, Zhigulev I. ↑,
71', Davidyan D. 🟨,
73', Isaev S. ↓, Yusupov Z. ↑,
73', Ageyan M. ↓, Akhatov D. ↑,
79', Ortiz D. ↓, Gongadze G. ↑,
86', Biryukov A. ↓, Glushkov N. ↑,
88', Tarba Z. ↓, Ozmanov D. ↑,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 9th and 10th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ufa won 0.

The recent form of both sides has fallen below expectations.

Ufa may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ufa has recorded 7 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:21 (averaging 1:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ufa against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with 9:11 goals (averaging 0.9:1.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Ufa	15	5	6	4	18:15	3	21
10	Arsenal Tula	15	5	4	6	19:29	-10	19

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

Arsenal Tula: 0.8% Ufa: 0.8%

Last Results with these Odds

Ufa - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.88%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ufa
Russian FNL
11.10.26	Sochi - Ufa	1:0 ✺
27.09.26	Ufa - Torpedo Moscow	0:0 ✺
18.09.26	Chelyabinsk - Ufa	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Ufa - Volga Ulyanovsk	2:2 ✺
Russian Cup
09.09.26	Kaluga - Ufa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTLTL
- Arsenal Tula
Russian FNL
09.10.26	Arsenal Tula - Spartak Kostroma	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
04.10.26	CSKA Moscow - Arsenal Tula	3:1 ✺
Russian FNL
16.09.26	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Arsenal Tula	3:1 ✺
13.09.26	Arsenal Tula - SKA Khabarovsk	2:2 ✺
Russian Cup
08.09.26	Tekstilshchik Ivanovo - Arsenal Tula	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
16.11.25	Ufa - Arsenal Tula	1:2
20.09.25	Arsenal Tula - Ufa	2:2
18.05.25	Ufa - Arsenal Tula	1:2
29.09.24	Arsenal Tula - Ufa	0:0
26.03.23	Arsenal Tula - Ufa	2:1
02.09.22	Ufa - Arsenal Tula	0:2
Russian Premier League
14.05.22	Ufa - Arsenal Tula	2:1

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