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Current Win Probability
Ufa 30.1%
Draw 32.2%
Arsenal Tula 37.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
33.6%
29.5%
36.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
34.2%
30%
36.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ufa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)
Arsenal Tula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ufa than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
Ufa - Arsenal Tula Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
31. Belenov A. (C) 55. Shlyakov E. 45. Tenyaev A. 50. Khomukha I. 7. Perchenok A. 8. Isaev S. 22. Yusupov Z. 24. Mrzljak F. 11. Minatulaev O. 70. Ortiz D. 88. Ageyan M.
18. Tsulaya M. (G) 4. Penchikov D. 31. Bolshakov K. (C) 3. Botaka-Yoboma E. 8. Popov A. 59. Avanesyan T. 25. Troshechkin A. 10. Gorbunov I. 17. Ahlinvi M. 27. Mirzov R. 29. Maksimov M.
Substitutes
23. Akhatov D. 96. Baranovsky A. 40. Chernov A. (G) 77. Chimezie W. 10. Gystarov R. 9. Karpuk I. 69. Khanenko I. 48. Lukyanov A. 21. Matskharashvili N. 19. Mayorov E. 17. Ozmanov D. 79. Troyanov K.
24. Azyavin I. 77. Berdnikov A. 19. Bogdanets K. 44. Isaenko O. 9. Kalmykov A. 78. Lipovoy D. 42. Melikhov A. (G) 95. Obryvkov S. 15. Putsko A. 21. Razdorskikh N. 5. Sergeev D. 22. Tsaraev A.
Coaches
Tetradze O.
Gunko D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Isaev S. 🟨,
23', Maksimov M. 🟨,
30', Penchikov D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Mrzljak F. ↓, Baranovsky A. ↑,
57', Botaka-Yoboma E. 🟨,
67', Ahlinvi M. ↓, Tsaraev A. ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Penchikov D. ⚽,
72', 🟨,
73', Minatulaev O. 🟨,
74', Isaev S. ↓, Akhatov D. ↑,
74', Minatulaev O. ↓, Chimezie W. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Ageyan M. ⚽,
79', 1 - 2, Mirzov R. (Pen),
84', Gorbunov I. ↓, Lipovoy D. ↑,
84', Maksimov M. ↓, Kalmykov A. ↑,
90+3', Troshechkin A. ↓, Razdorskikh N. ↑,
90+3', Mirzov R. ↓, Bogdanets K. ↑,
90+5', Shlyakov E. 🟨,
Preview
The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 10).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ufa won 0.
Ufa has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Arsenal is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins โ 3).
Arsenal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ufa won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:23. (average 1.1:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Ufa won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.1:1.3).
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Belenov A. (C) 
Mrzljak F. 
Ortiz D. 
Avanesyan T. 
Ahlinvi M. 
Chimezie W. 
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