Match Info

Date: 8 May 2022, Sunday


	Arsenal Tula		Krasnodar

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.4	2.29
	2.92	3.73	2.37
	3.02	3.56	2.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.86)	3.56 ↑ (3.39)	2.36 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Tula
32.6%

Draw
26.8%

Krasnodar
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

27.9%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

27.5%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Tula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Krasnodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

The ML Model estimate for Arsenal Tula aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Krasnodar than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	20%	70%

Arsenal Tula - Krasnodar Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Arsenal will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Krasnodar will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Krasnodar: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 5).

Arsenal has the most likely position - 16 (70.73%), has project points - 25, has currently - 22, has a very good chance of relegated (96%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

Krasnodar has the most likely position - 4 (44.64%), has project points - 50, has currently - 45, has not chance of relegated, has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has not chance of win league.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arsenal won 1.

Arsenal is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Krasnodar is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Krasnodar could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Arsenal won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 5-30.

Including matches at home between the teams Arsenal won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Tula
Russian Premier League
02.05.22	Arsenal Tula - Nizhny Novgorod	2:2 ✺
24.04.22	Rubin Kazan - Arsenal Tula	1:0 ✺
17.04.22	Arsenal Tula - Rostov	1:2 ✺
10.04.22	Spartak Moscow - Arsenal Tula	3:0 ✺
02.04.22	Arsenal Tula - Akhmat Grozny	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLLLT
- FC Krasnodar
Russian Premier League
04.05.22	Krasnodar - Lokomotiv Moscow	1:0 ✺
30.04.22	Krasnodar - Rostov	2:1 ✺
25.04.22	Krasnodar - Zenit	1:3 ✺
17.04.22	Krylya Sovetov - Krasnodar	2:0 ✺
09.04.22	Rubin Kazan - Krasnodar	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
15.08.21	Krasnodar - Arsenal Tula	3:2
11.04.21	Arsenal Tula - Krasnodar	1:0
18.08.20	Krasnodar - Arsenal Tula	2:0
24.11.19	Arsenal Tula - Krasnodar	1:2
29.09.19	Krasnodar - Arsenal Tula	2:0
19.05.19	Arsenal Tula - Krasnodar	0:3
25.11.18	Krasnodar - Arsenal Tula	3:0

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