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Current Win Probability
Arsenal Tula 18.7%
Draw 25.2%
Spartak Moscow 56.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
19.9%
25.4%
54.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
16.1%
20.6%
67.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arsenal Tula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)
Spartak Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (-2.6%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spartak Moscow than the current prediction. (+11.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Spartak Moscow could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
10%
3.3%
86.7%
Arsenal Tula - Spartak Moscow Predictions
Users Predictions:
Spartak Moscow will win
(26 of 30 users predict this - 86.67%). Confidence interval (95%): 74.51% – 98.83%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Preview
A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 13 in the zone Premier League (Relegation) and 10).
Arsenal has the most likely position - 16 (19.85%), has project points - 28, has currently - 3, has a chance of relegated (50%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Spartak M has the most likely position - 3 (12.76%), has project points - 49, has currently - 6, has a very small chance of relegated (2%), has a chance of qualify for ucl (17%), has a very small chance of win league (5%).
Arsenal is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Recent matches Spartak M is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Arsenal could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Spartak M is a favorite.
Last 13 head-to-head matches Arsenal won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 14-18.
Including matches at home between the teams Arsenal won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9-6.
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