The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Arsenal Tula 29.1%
Draw 29.2%
Ural 41.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
26.3%
30.4%
43.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
26.2%
30.3%
43.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arsenal Tula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)
Ural has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (-2.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ural than the current prediction. (+1.9%)
Arsenal Tula - Ural Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
42. Melikhov A. (G) 77. Plotnikov D. 45. Karmaev N. 82. Alekhin A. 44. Isaenko O. 21. Razdorskikh N. 35. Enin I. (C) 19. Glushkov N. 9. Davidyan D. 8. Shamkin D. 23. Melekestsev T.
57. Selikhov A. (G) 24. Korotkov A. 46. Mamin A. 2. Begic S. 16. Italo 97. Ishkov I. 37. Bondarev V. 6. Sungatulin F. (C) 44. Malkevich V. 11. Bokov D. 99. Fourrier B.
Substitutes
25. Biryukov A. 14. Brnovic M. 24. Gotsuk K. 5. Krashevskiy Y. 36. Levashov M. (G) 7. Reyes E. 18. Tsulaya M. (G) 22. Uridia G. 75. Zhamaletdinov T. 10. Zhigulev I.
17. Karapuzov V. 40. Khrisanfov N. 86. Kuznetsov I. (G) 18. Morozov N. 35. Prishchepa D. 43. Shoronov R.
Coaches
Gunko D.
Yuran S.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Malkevich V. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Enin I. ↓, Brnovic M. ↑,
59', Mamin A. ↓, Karapuzov V. ↑,
66', Alekhin A. 🟨,
66', Davidyan D. ↓, Reyes E. ↑,
66', Shamkin D. ↓, Zhigulev I. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Reyes E. ⚽,
73', Fourrier B. 🟨,
77', 1 - 2, Ishkov I. ⚽,
81', Fourrier B. ↓, Shoronov R. ↑,
81', Bokov D. ↓, Morozov N. ↑,
89', Razdorskikh N. ↓, Gotsuk K. ↑,
89', Isaenko O. ↓, Uridia G. ↑,
90', Bondarev V. ↓, Prishchepa D. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 2, Melekestsev T. ⚽,
90+4', Sungatulin F. 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 5).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 1.
In recent matches, Arsenal has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Ural is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins โ 3).
Ural may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Ural will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:25. (average 1:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Arsenal won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.2:1).
Outrights of Russian FNL for now
Ural: 7.82% Arsenal Tula: 0.78%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
2
Ural
12
7
4
1
20:6
14
25
12
Arsenal Tula
12
3
4
5
12:22
-10
13
Last Results with these Odds
Ural - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 43.27%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.
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Melikhov A. (G) 
Davidyan D. 
Begic S. 
Italo 
Malkevich V. 
Fourrier B. 
Brnovic M. 
Reyes E. 
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