What is the expert prediction for Aston Villa vs Brentford?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Aston Villa vs Brentford. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Aston Villa vs Brentford Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, February 01, 2026)

Match Info

Premier League - Round 24

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Robinson T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Mix
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 2 DRM, FuboTV
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 3, CANAL+ Sport 360
Germany	Sky Sport Mix, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 2
Iceland	SÝN Sport 2
India	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	Vidio
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 2, Sport 3
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 2, Canal+ Sport 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 7
Nigeria	SuperSport Action, Supersport Maximo 1
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 2
Pakistan	ARY ZAP
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Variety 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	Sky Sport Mix, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Premier League
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Sports App, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock, Telemundo, USA Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	FPT Play


	Aston Villa		Brentford

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.4	3.1
	2.32	3.35	3.2
	2.36	3.41	3.24
	2.23	3.47	3.4	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.1
	2.39	3.4	3.3	Watch
	2.36	3.25	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.04)	3.34 ↓ (3.67)	3.21 ↓ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
41.3%

Draw
28.8%

Brentford
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

26.1%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

25.7%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aston Villa's form might have worsened.

Brentford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aston Villa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brentford than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.1%	12.4%	9.5%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 105 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 82 - 78.1%). Brentford will win (votes: 10 - 9.5%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 12.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 70.2% – 86%. The data is statistically significant.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Aston Villa (1.36) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Aston Villa (1.60) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1 - Aston Villa (3.28) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 55.6%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aston Villa will win (40 of 50 users predict this - 80%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 62 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 52 - 83.9%). Brentford (votes: 6 - 9.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 6.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. (C) 14. Torres P. 22. Maatsen I. 21. Douglas Luiz 26. Bogarde L. 19. Sancho J. 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 18. Abraham T.	1. Kelleher C. (G) 33. Kayode M. 20. Ajer K. 4. van den Berg S. 3. Henry R. 6. Henderson J. 27. Janelt V. 19. Ouattara Da. 8. Jensen M. (C) 7. Schade K. 9. Thiago I.
Substitutes
31. Bailey L. 6. Barkley R. 40. Bizot M. (G) 12. Digne L. 9. Elliott H. 53. Hemmings G. 3. Lindelof V. 5. Mings T. 24. Onana A.	48. Bentt L. 22. Collins N. 24. Damsgaard M. 45. Donovan R. 2. Hickey A. 23. Lewis-Potter K. 5. Pinnock E. 12. Valdimarsson H. R. (G) 18. Yarmolyuk Y.
Coaches
Emery U.	Andrews K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', Ajer K. 🟨,
42', Schade K. 🟥,
45+1', 0 - 1, Ouattara Da. ⚽,
45+5', Kayode M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bogarde L. ↓, Bailey L. ↑,
59', Henderson J. ↓, Collins N. ↑,
60', Ouattara Da. ↓, Yarmolyuk Y. ↑,
76', Jensen M. ↓, Lewis-Potter K. ↑,
77', Sancho J. ↓, Elliott H. ↑,
84', Henry R. ↓, Hickey A. ↑,
90+1', Collins N. 🟨,
90+3', Rogers M. 🟨,
90+3', Janelt V. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 2.

Aston Villa is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Brentford has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Brentford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Aston Villa could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Alysson (Injury) Garcia A. (Thigh Injury) Kamara B. (Knee Injury) McGinn J. (Knee Injury) Tielemans Y. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Brentford: Carvalho F. (Knee Injury) Dasilva J. (Knee Injury) Milambo A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Watkins O. (Injury)

There are questionable in Brentford: Ajer K. (Injury) Damsgaard M. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:24. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:11. (average 2.1:1.4).

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	56:49	7	65
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	55:52	3	53

Last Results with these Odds

Aston Villa - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 47.04%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Brentford - the odds 3.58 are the expected chance of winning is 26.81%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Aston Villa - Red Bull Salzburg	3:2 ✺
English Premier League
25.01.26	Newcastle United - Aston Villa	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Fenerbahçe - Aston Villa	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
18.01.26	Aston Villa - Everton	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WWWLW
- Brentford FC
English Premier League
25.01.26	Brentford - Nottingham Forest	0:2 ✺
17.01.26	Chelsea - Brentford	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Sheffield Wednesday - Brentford	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Brentford - Sunderland	3:0 ✺
04.01.26	Everton - Brentford	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
16.09.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	2:1 penalties
English Premier League
23.08.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	1:0
08.03.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	0:1
04.12.24	Aston Villa - Brentford	3:1
06.04.24	Aston Villa - Brentford	3:3
17.12.23	Brentford - Aston Villa	1:2
Club Friendly
30.07.23	Aston Villa - Brentford	3:3

Aston Villa - Brentford: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide