Match Info

Premier League - Round 9

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Mix
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 4 DRM
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	Canal+ Live 2
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, Sky Sport Mix, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Premier League
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	Match 4
Iceland	SÝN Sport 2
India	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	Vidio
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Astro Premier League, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 2, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Mongolia	Premier Sports 3
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	Sky Sport 4
Nigeria	SuperSport Action, Supersport Maximo 1
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	Hub Premier 3
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Variety 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 1 Bar Espana, DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	Sky Sport Mix
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 4
Tajikistan	Futbol TV, Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Sports App, NBC, SiriusXM FC, Telemundo, USA Network
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+ Sport 2, K+, TV 360
World	Sport 24 Extra


	Aston Villa		Manchester City

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.75	1.83
	4.15	3.8	1.85
	4.25	4.05	1.84
	1.39	3.63	14.29	Watch
	4.38	4.13	1.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.67 ↓ (3.83)	3.87 ↑ (3.73)	4.33 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
35.7%

Draw
33.9%

Manchester City
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.9%

25.6%

49.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.4%

27.2%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aston Villa's performance.

Manchester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Manchester City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-12.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aston Villa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (+22.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Manchester City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.2%	13.6%	82.2%

Aston Villa - Manchester City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Man City (1.75) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Aston Villa (1.98) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Aston Villa (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Manchester City will win (96 of 115 users predict this - 83.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.69% – 90.27%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester City will win (53 of 58 users predict this - 91.38%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 64 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 4 - 6.3%). Man City (votes: 56 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 4 - 6.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 14. Torres P. 12. Digne L. 44. Kamara B. 24. Onana A. 7. McGinn J. (C) 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.	25. Donnarumma G. (G) 27. Nunes M. 3. Dias R. 5. Stones J. 24. Gvardiol J. 4. Reijnders T. 52. Bobb O. 47. Foden P. 20. Silva B. (C) 26. Savinho 9. Haaland E.
Substitutes
6. Barkley R. 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 29. Guessand E. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 17. Malen D. 5. Mings T. 19. Sancho J.	6. Ake N. 10. Cherki R. 11. Doku J. 8. Kovacic M. 82. Lewis R. 7. Marmoush O. 14. Nico 33. O'Reilly N. 1. Trafford J. (G)
Coaches
Emery U.	Guardiola P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Cash M. ⚽, Buendia E. (A),
29', Buendia E. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
40', Savinho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Reijnders T. 🟨,
61', Silva B. ↓, Nico ↑,
61', Bobb O. ↓, Doku J. ↑,
61', Stones J. ↓, O'Reilly N. ↑,
64', Nico 🟨,
74', McGinn J. ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
74', Sancho J. ↓, Guessand E. ↑,
76', Reijnders T. ↓, Cherki R. ↑,
80', Foden P. 🟨,
81', Kamara B. 🟨,
84', Savinho ↓, Marmoush O. ↑,
86', Watkins O. ↓, Malen D. ↑,
86', Digne L. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 2.

Aston Villa is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Man City is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Aston Villa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Man City is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Garcia A. (Injury) Tielemans Y. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Man City: Khusanov A. (Ankle Injury) Rodri (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Digne L. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Man City: Nico (Foot Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 18:50. (average 0.9:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:22. (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Go Ahead Eagles - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
19.10.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
05.10.25	Aston Villa - Burnley	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Feyenoord - Aston Villa	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
28.09.25	Aston Villa - Fulham	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LWWWW
- Manchester City
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Villarreal - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
18.10.25	Manchester City - Everton	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Brentford - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Monaco - Manchester City	2:2 ✺
English Premier League
27.09.25	Manchester City - Burnley	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
22.04.25	Manchester City - Aston Villa	2:1
21.12.24	Aston Villa - Manchester City	2:1
03.04.24	Manchester City - Aston Villa	4:1
06.12.23	Aston Villa - Manchester City	1:0
12.02.23	Manchester City - Aston Villa	3:1
03.09.22	Aston Villa - Manchester City	1:1
22.05.22	Manchester City - Aston Villa	3:2

Upcoming Matches