Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 15 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Sanchez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Aston Villa		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.75	2.1
	3.2	3.75	2.1
	3.2	3.95	2.12	Watch
	3.35	3.85	2.15
	3.26	3.89	2.14	Watch
	3.3	3.6	2.1
	3.45	3.84	2.08
	3.15	3.9	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↓ (3.4)	3.82 ↑ (3.81)	2.12 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
29.5%

Draw
25.2%

Paris Saint-Germain
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

25.2%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

24.6%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.1%	16.2%	52.7%

Aston Villa - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Users Predictions: 73 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 23 - 31.5%). PSG will win (votes: 38 - 52.1%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 16.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PSG: 40.6% – 63.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 13 - 41.9%). PSG (votes: 16 - 51.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 6.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - PSG (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 60%) .

1X2, 1st Half - PSG (2.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Aston Villa (1.71) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH -1 - PSG (2.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Aston Villa (5.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 38 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 16 - 42.1%). PSG (votes: 20 - 52.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 5.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 14. Torres P. 12. Digne L. 24. Onana A. 44. Kamara B. 8. Tielemans Y. 7. McGinn J. (C) 9. Rashford M. 27. Rogers M.	1. Donnarumma G. (G) 2. Hakimi A. 51. Pacho W. 5. Marquinhos (C) 25. Mendes N. 87. Neves J. 17. Vitinha 8. Ruiz F. 29. Barcola B. 10. Dembele O. 7. Kvaratskhelia K.
Substitutes
21. Asensio M. 31. Bailey L. 6. Barkley R. 26. Bogarde L. 3. Disasi A. 22. Maatsen I. 5. Mings T. 25. Olsen R. (G) 52. Proctor S. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 11. Watkins O.	35. Beraldo L. 14. Doue D. 21. Hernandez L. 3. Kimpembe P. 19. Lee Kang-In 24. Mayulu S. 49. Mbaye I. 9. Ramos G. 39. Safonov M. (G) 80. Tenas A. (G) 33. Zaire-Emery W.
Coaches
Emery U.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Hakimi A. ⚽,
28', 0 - 2, Mendes N. ⚽, Dembele O. (A),
34', 1 - 2, Tielemans Y. ⚽, McGinn J. (A),
42', McGinn J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', 2 - 2, McGinn J. ⚽,
57', 3 - 2, Konsa E. ⚽, Rashford M. (A),
61', Barcola B. ↓, Doue D. ↑,
66', McGinn J. ↓, Asensio M. ↑,
67', Onana A. ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
76', Rashford M. ↓, Watkins O. ↑,
76', Digne L. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
88', Tielemans Y. ↓, Barkley R. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-3.

Aston Villa is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

PSG in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

PSG could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Aston Villa have a series of guest games.

PSG will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Garcia A. (Inactive) Jimoh-Aloba J. (Inactive) Malen D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Bailey L. (Knock)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Aston Villa won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English Premier League
12.04.25	Southampton - Aston Villa	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.04.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Aston Villa	3:1 ✺
English Premier League
05.04.25	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	2:1 ✺
02.04.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa	0:3 ✺
English FA Cup
30.03.25	Preston North End - Aston Villa	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WLWWW
- Paris Saint-Germain
UEFA Champions League
09.04.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Aston Villa	3:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
05.04.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Angers	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
01.04.25	Dunkerque - Paris Saint-Germain	2:4 ✺
French Ligue 1
29.03.25	Saint-Étienne - Paris Saint-Germain	1:6 ✺
16.03.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
09.04.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Aston Villa	3:1

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