Match Info

Premier League - Round 32

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

Referee: Bramall T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, One Africa, Showmax, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Superscreen Channel 199, SuperSport Blitz, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport OTT 3
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	Optus Sport
Belgium	Play Sports 3
Botswana	YTV
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Cameroon	CRTV Sports
Canada	fubo Sports Network 3 DRM
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Cote-d-ivoire	NCI
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 5
Denmark	Viaplay
Eswatini	Eswatini TV
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 3
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Guinea	CIS
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now E, Now Player, NOW Premier League 2
Iceland	Siminn Sport 2
India	Disney+ Hotstar, Jiocinema, Star Sports Select 2
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 258
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv, K24, Kameme TV
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Astro Premier League, SKY NET Sports 2, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mauritius	MBC 11
Mexico	Tubi TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	Sky Sport 6, Sky Sport NOW
Nigeria	SuperSport Blitz, SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Screen channel 199
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	DAZN 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	Hub Premier 2
South-africa	SABC 3, SABC Plus, SABC Sport, Superscreen Channel 199, SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport PSL
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime+
Spain	DAZN 2 Bar Espana, DAZN 2 Espana, DAZN Espana, Max
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tanzania	UTV
Thailand	True Premier Football 3
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX
Uganda	NBS Sport 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fubo Sports Network, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock TV, SiriusXM FC
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus
World	Disney+
Zambia	ZNBC 1


	Southampton		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	6.25	4.33	1.5
	5.25	4.4	1.55
	6.2	4.7	1.52	Watch
	6.19	4.68	1.52	Watch
	5.5	4.33	1.57
	6.68	4.44	1.53	Watch
	6.2	4.7	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.04 ↑ (5.11)	4.51 ↑ (4.32)	1.53 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
15.9%

Draw
21.3%

Aston Villa
62.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.9%

22.3%

58.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.7%

22%

59.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14%	1.8%	84.2%

Southampton - Aston Villa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Aston Villa (1.83) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (48 of 56 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.54% – 94.88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aston Villa will win (18 of 19 users predict this - 94.74%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. S`hampton (votes: 1 - 4.8%). Aston Villa (votes: 20 - 95.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Ramsdale A. (G) 6. Harwood-Bellis T. 35. Bednarek J. 5. Stephens J. (C) 2. Walker-Peters K. 18. Fernandes M. 26. Ugochukwu L. 3. Manning R. 19. Archer C. 32. Onuachu P. 20. Sulemana K.	23. Martinez E. (C) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 5. Mings T. 22. Maatsen I. 24. Onana A. 8. Tielemans Y. 27. Rogers M. 21. Asensio M. 41. Ramsey J. 9. Rashford M.
Substitutes
7. Aribo J. 14. Bree J. 33. Dibling T. 1. McCarthy A. (G) 46. Robinson J. 8. Smallbone W. 11. Stewart R. 16. Sugawara Y. 15. Wood N.	12. Digne L. 3. Disasi A. 16. Garcia A. 44. Kamara B. 17. Malen D. 7. McGinn J. 25. Olsen R. (G) 14. Torres P. 11. Watkins O.
Coaches
Juric I.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Fernandes M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Onuachu P. ↓, Dibling T. ↑,
61', Archer C. ↓, Stewart R. ↑,
61', Sulemana K. ↓, Smallbone W. ↑,
66', Rashford M. ↓, Watkins O. ↑,
66', Ramsey J. ↓, Malen D. ↑,
68', Bednarek J. 🟨,
69', Asensio M. (Pen),
73', 0 - 1, Watkins O. ⚽, Tielemans Y. (A),
79', 0 - 2, Malen D. ⚽, Rogers M. (A),
82', Manning R. ↓, Sugawara Y. ↑,
86', Cash M. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
86', Rogers M. ↓, McGinn J. ↑,
87', McGinn J. 🟨,
88', Harwood-Bellis T. 🟨,
89', Fernandes M. ↓, Robinson J. ↑,
89', Onana A. ↓, Kamara B. ↑,
90+4', Asensio M. (Pen),
90+4', 0 - 3, McGinn J. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

S`hampton is Relegated to Championship

Last 5 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 1.

S`hampton has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Aston Villa is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

S`hampton could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Aston Villa have a series of guest games.

In this match Aston Villa is a favorite.

There will not play in S`hampton: Downes F. (Yellow Cards) Gronbaek A. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Taylor C. (Knock)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Bailey L. (Knock)

Last 18 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 9 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 31:22 (average 1.7:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams S`hampton won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 18:9 (average 2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Aston Villa - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 58.76%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English Premier League
06.04.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Southampton	3:1 ✺
02.04.25	Southampton - Crystal Palace	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Southampton - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:2 ✺
08.03.25	Liverpool - Southampton	3:1 ✺
25.02.25	Chelsea - Southampton	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTLLL
- Aston Villa
UEFA Champions League
09.04.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Aston Villa	3:1 ✺
English Premier League
05.04.25	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	2:1 ✺
02.04.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa	0:3 ✺
English FA Cup
30.03.25	Preston North End - Aston Villa	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
20.03.25	Al Ain - Aston Villa	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
07.12.24	Aston Villa - Southampton	1:0
21.01.23	Southampton - Aston Villa	0:1
16.09.22	Aston Villa - Southampton	1:0
05.03.22	Aston Villa - Southampton	4:0
05.11.21	Southampton - Aston Villa	1:0
30.01.21	Southampton - Aston Villa	0:1
01.11.20	Aston Villa - Southampton	3:4

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