Match Info

Premier League - Round 4

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Madley A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Supersport Action
Albania	16:00	SuperSport 5
Argentina	11:00	Disney+
Armenia	18:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, TOD
Australia	00:00	Stan Sport
Austria	16:00	Sky Go Austria
Bangladesh	20:00	Toffee Live
Bosnia And Herzegovina	16:00	Arena Sport 7
Brazil	11:00	Disney+
Canada	10:00	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Chile	11:00	Disney+
Colombia	09:00	Disney+
Croatia	16:00	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	17:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech Republic	16:00	CANAL+ Sport 4, CANAL+ Sport 6, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	16:00	Viaplay
Estonia	17:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Finland	17:00	Viaplay
France	16:00	Canal+ Live 8, CANAL+ Sport
Germany	16:00	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 8, WOW
Greece	17:00	Nova Sports 2
Hong Kong	22:00	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 3
Iceland	14:00	SÝN Sport 5
India	19:30	Disney+ Hotstar, JioStar, JioTV app
Indonesia	21:00	Vidio
Italy	16:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 259
Japan	23:00	U-NEXT
Kenya	17:00	Gotv
Kosovo	16:00	SuperSport 5
Lithuania	17:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	22:00	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 3, Canal+ Action, Sooka
Malta	16:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	08:00	Disney+, FOX One
Mongolia	22:00	Premier Sports 3
Myanmar	20:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	16:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	02:00	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 9
Nigeria	15:00	SuperSport Action
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	16:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Peru	09:00	Disney+
Philippines	22:00	Setanta Sports
Poland	16:00	Canal+ Extra 5
Portugal	15:00	DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	17:00	Voyo
Serbia	16:00	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	22:00	Hub Premier 3
Slovenia	16:00	Arena Sport 3
South Africa	16:00	SuperSport Action
South Korea	23:00	Coupang Play
Spain	16:00	DAZN 3, DAZN Espana
Sweden	16:00	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Turkey	17:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 MAX
Uruguay	11:00	Disney+
Usa	10:00	FuboTV, NBCSN, NBC Universo, NBC, SportsEngine Play, Telemundo
Venezuela	10:00	Disney+
Vietnam	21:00	FPT Play


	Aston Villa		Nottingham Forest

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.40	3.20
	2.20	3.40	3.20
	2.17	3.40	3.40
	2.31	3.49	3.37
	2.14	3.69	3.42	Watch
	2.20	3.45	3.35
	2.19	3.43	3.40	Watch
	2.30	3.50	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (1.98)	3.47 ↓ (3.59)	3.32 ↓ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
43.3%

Draw
27.7%

Nottingham Forest
28.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48%

26.5%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

25.4%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Nottingham Forest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	7.4%	14.8%

Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 21 - 77.8%). Nottingham will win (votes: 4 - 14.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 62.1% – 93.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Nottingham (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Nottingham (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

Corners O/U 10 - under (1.85) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 4 - 50%). Nottingham (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Suzuki Z. (G) 29. Wan-Bissaka A. 3. Lindelof V. 14. Torres P. 22. Maatsen I. 8. Kamara B. 6. Barkley R. 7. McGinn J. (C) 10. Buendia E. 53. Hemmings G. 11. Jackson N.	26. Sels M. (G) 34. Aina O. 2. Diomande O. 5. Murillo 27. Munoz D. 24. McAtee J. 21. Schlager X. 3. Williams N. 14. Ndoye D. 10. Gibbs-White M. (C) 19. Delap L.
Substitutes
18. Abraham T. 47. Alysson 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 17. Garnacho A. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Mbaye I. 5. Mings T. 13. Ruggeri M.	8. Dominguez N. 7. Hudson-Odoi C. 11. Igor Jesus 12. John Victor (G) 15. Kalimuendo A. 25. Netz L. 6. Sangare I. 9. Wood Ch. 22. Yates R.
Coaches
Emery U.	Glasner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Torres P. ↓, Mings T. ↑,
43', Ndoye D. 🟨,
45', Jackson N. 🟨,
45+3', Murillo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Jackson N. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
46', Hemmings G. ↓, Alysson ↑,
46', 0 - 1, Delap L. ⚽, Murillo (A),
56', Schlager X. 🟨,
63', Buendia E. ↓, Mbaye I. ↑,
63', Barkley R. ↓, Manzambi J. ↑,
74', 1 - 1, Alysson ⚽, McGinn J. (A),
75', Delap L. 🟨,
75', Ndoye D. ↓, Igor Jesus ↑,
80', McAtee J. 🟨,
82', McAtee J. ↓, Sangare I. ↑,
88', 1 - 2, Igor Jesus ⚽, Gibbs-White M. (A),
90+1', Delap L. ↓, Wood Ch. ↑,
90+5', Mings T. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 3.

Aston Villa has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Nottingham has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nottingham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Aston Villa has had a series of away games.

Recently, Nottingham has had a series of home games.

Aston Villa will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Goretzka L. (Knee Injury) Joao Gomes (Red Card) Madjo B. (Ankle Injury) Onana A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Nottingham: Savona N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Manzambi J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 35:25. (average 1.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 24:12. (average 3:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Aston Villa	8	3	2	3	9:12	-3	11
18	Nottingham	8	1	3	4	6:10	-4	6

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Aston Villa: 0.76% Nottingham: 0.22%

Last Results with these Odds

Aston Villa - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 48.03%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Club Brugge - Aston Villa	2:3 ✺
English Premier League
05.09.26	Hull City - Aston Villa	0:0 ✺
31.08.26	Aston Villa - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WTLLL
- Nottingham Forest
English Premier League
05.09.26	Nottingham Forest - Tottenham Hotspur	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Liverpool - Nottingham Forest	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
22.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Brest	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
07.05.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	4:0
30.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	1:0
English Premier League
12.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	1:1
03.01.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	3:1
05.04.25	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	2:1
14.12.24	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	2:1
24.02.24	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	4:2

Upcoming Matches