Match Info

Premier League - Round 4

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Madley A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Aston Villa		Nottingham Forest

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.40	3.20
	2.20	3.40	3.20
	2.17	3.40	3.40
	2.31	3.49	3.37
	2.14	3.69	3.42	Watch
	2.20	3.45	3.35
	2.19	3.43	3.40	Watch
	2.30	3.50	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (1.98)	3.47 ↓ (3.59)	3.32 ↓ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
43.3%

Draw
27.7%

Nottingham Forest
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

26.5%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

25.4%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Nottingham Forest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	7.4%	14.8%

Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 21 - 77.8%). Nottingham will win (votes: 4 - 14.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 62.1% – 93.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Nottingham (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Nottingham (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

Corners O/U 10 - under (1.85) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 4 - 50%). Nottingham (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Suzuki Z. (G) 29. Wan-Bissaka A. 3. Lindelof V. 14. Torres P. 22. Maatsen I. 8. Kamara B. 6. Barkley R. 7. McGinn J. (C) 10. Buendia E. 53. Hemmings G. 11. Jackson N.	26. Sels M. (G) 34. Aina O. 2. Diomande O. 5. Murillo 27. Munoz D. 24. McAtee J. 21. Schlager X. 3. Williams N. 14. Ndoye D. 10. Gibbs-White M. (C) 19. Delap L.
Substitutes
18. Abraham T. 47. Alysson 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 17. Garnacho A. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Mbaye I. 5. Mings T. 13. Ruggeri M.	8. Dominguez N. 7. Hudson-Odoi C. 11. Igor Jesus 12. John Victor (G) 15. Kalimuendo A. 25. Netz L. 6. Sangare I. 9. Wood Ch. 22. Yates R.
Coaches
Emery U.	Glasner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Torres P. ↓, Mings T. ↑,
43', Ndoye D. 🟨,
45', Jackson N. 🟨,
45+3', Murillo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Jackson N. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
46', Hemmings G. ↓, Alysson ↑,
46', 0 - 1, Delap L. ⚽, Murillo (A),
56', Schlager X. 🟨,
63', Buendia E. ↓, Mbaye I. ↑,
63', Barkley R. ↓, Manzambi J. ↑,
74', 1 - 1, Alysson ⚽, McGinn J. (A),
75', Delap L. 🟨,
75', Ndoye D. ↓, Igor Jesus ↑,
80', McAtee J. 🟨,
82', McAtee J. ↓, Sangare I. ↑,
88', 1 - 2, Igor Jesus ⚽, Gibbs-White M. (A),
90+1', Delap L. ↓, Wood Ch. ↑,
90+5', Mings T. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 3.

Aston Villa has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Nottingham has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nottingham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Aston Villa has had a series of away games.

Recently, Nottingham has had a series of home games.

Aston Villa will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Goretzka L. (Knee Injury) Joao Gomes (Red Card) Madjo B. (Ankle Injury) Onana A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Nottingham: Savona N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Manzambi J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 35:25. (average 1.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 24:12. (average 3:1.5).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Aston Villa: 0.7% Nottingham: 0.4%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Nottingham	5	1	2	2	4:5	-1	5
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4:9	-5	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Club Brugge - Aston Villa	2:3 ✺
English Premier League
05.09.26	Hull City - Aston Villa	0:0 ✺
31.08.26	Aston Villa - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WTLLL
- Nottingham Forest
English Premier League
05.09.26	Nottingham Forest - Tottenham Hotspur	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Liverpool - Nottingham Forest	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
22.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Brest	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
07.05.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	4:0
30.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	1:0
English Premier League
12.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	1:1
03.01.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	3:1
05.04.25	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	2:1
14.12.24	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	2:1
24.02.24	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	4:2

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