Match Info

Serie A - Round 6

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Gewiss Stadium (Bergamo)

Referee: Zufferli L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Setanta Sports 1
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Kuwait	Shasha
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	True Premier Football 3
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, DAZN UK
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Atalanta		Como

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.3	3	Watch
	2.2	3.4	3.2
	2.28	3.35	3.15	Watch
	2.25	3.45	3.47
	2.31	3.23	3.11	Watch
	2.44	3.46	3.17
	2.24	3.45	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.02)	3.38 ↓ (3.55)	3.2 ↓ (3.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta
41.7%

Draw
28.4%

Como
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

27.2%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

29.7%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atalanta's form might have worsened.

Como has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atalanta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Como than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Como, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.8%	27.5%	13.7%

Atalanta - Como Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Atalanta will win (votes: 30 - 58.8%). Como will win (votes: 7 - 13.7%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 27.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atalanta: 45.3% – 72.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Tie (votes: 7 - 46.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Atalanta (1.62) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Atalanta (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Atalanta (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Atalanta (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 13 - 65%). Tie (votes: 7 - 35%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 19. Djimsiti B. 4. Hien I. 69. Ahanor H. 77. Zappacosta D. 13. Ederson 8. Pasalic M. (C) 47. Bernasconi L. 10. Samardzic L. 11. Lookman A. 7. Sulemana K.	1. Butez J. (G) 28. Smolcic I. 14. Ramon J. 34. Diego Carlos 31. Vojvoda M. 23. Perrone M. 33. Da Cunha L. (C) 42. Addai J. 10. Paz N. 20. Baturina M. 11. Douvikas A.
Substitutes
44. Brescianini M. 90. Krstovic N. 70. Maldini D. 6. Musah Y. 40. Obric R. 31. Rossi F. (G) 57. Sportiello M. (G)	57. Bonsignori Goggi L. 6. Caqueret M. 44. Cavlina N. (G) 99. Cerri A. 5. Goldaniga E. 2. Kempf M. O. 7. Morata A. 18. Moreno A. 27. Posch S. 3. Valle A. 22. Vigorito M. (G)
Coaches
Juric I.	Guindos D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Samardzic L. ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, Perrone M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Douvikas A. ↓, Morata A. ↑,
58', Djimsiti B. 🟨,
62', Samardzic L. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
69', Vojvoda M. ↓, Valle A. ↑,
69', Baturina M. ↓, Caqueret M. ↑,
74', Lookman A. ↓, Krstovic N. ↑,
74', Ederson ↓, Musah Y. ↑,
74', Sulemana K. ↓, Maldini D. ↑,
83', Diego Carlos 🟨,
85', Smolcic I. 🟨,
85', Smolcic I. ↓, Posch S. ↑,
89', Addai J. 🟨,
89', Da Cunha L. ↓, Kempf M. O. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 9).

Atalanta is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Como's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Atalanta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Atalanta will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Atalanta: Bakker M. (Knee Injury) Bellanova R. (Muscle Injury) De Roon M. (Red Card) Kolasinac S. (Knee Injury) Kossounou O. (Muscle Injury) Scalvini G. (Thigh Injury) Scamacca G. (Knee Injury) Zalewski N. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Como: Diao A. (Foot Injury) Dossena A. (Knee Injury) Roberto S. (Thigh Injury) Rodriguez J. (Red Card) Van der Brempt I. (Injury)

There are questionable in Atalanta: De Ketelaere C. (Muscle Injury) Hien I. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:4. (average 2.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Atalanta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Atalanta - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 47.79%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Atalanta - Club Brugge	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
27.09.25	Juventus - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Torino - Atalanta	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Atalanta	4:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.09.25	Atalanta - Lecce	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WTWLW
- Calcio Como
Italian Serie A
27.09.25	Como - Cremonese	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
24.09.25	Como - Sassuolo	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
21.09.25	Fiorentina - Como	1:2 ✺
15.09.25	Como - Genoa	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Bologna - Como	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
25.01.25	Como - Atalanta	1:2
24.09.24	Atalanta - Como	2:3
Club Friendly
23.07.22	Atalanta - Como	4:0

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