The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Atenas de San Carlos 16.4%
Draw 28.6%
Peñarol de Montevideo 55%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
17%
23%
60%
Our Initial ML Estimation
16.9%
22.8%
60.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atenas de San Carlos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)
Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atenas de San Carlos than the current prediction. (+0.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+5.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Peñarol de Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Atenas de San Carlos - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Barboza B. (Own goal),
28', 2 - 0, Rucci T. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', 2 - 1, Umpierrez L. ⚽,
62', 2 - 2, Romero F. ⚽,
90', Remedi E. (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', Vigo F. 🟥,
Preview
Recent performances by Atenas have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Peñarol is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Atenas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Atenas has had a series of away games.
Recently, Peñarol has had a series of home games.
In this match, Peñarol is a strong favorite.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atenas won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:11. (average 0.6:2.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Atenas won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).
Last Results with these Odds
Peñarol de Montevideo - the odds 1.53 are the expected chance of winning is 60.03%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.
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