Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 14

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Uruguay Montevideo		Atenas de San Carlos

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.85	2.75
	2.55	2.75	2.75
	2.78	2.9	2.72
	2.61	2.92	2.91	Watch
	2.75	2.85	2.65
	2.65	3.11	2.7
	2.6	2.8	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (2.75)	2.88 ↓ (3.05)	2.73 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Uruguay Montevideo
34.8%

Draw
31.7%

Atenas de San Carlos
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

29.4%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

29.9%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Uruguay Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Atenas de San Carlos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Uruguay Montevideo than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atenas de San Carlos than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atenas de San Carlos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Uruguay Montevideo - Atenas de San Carlos Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+3', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
83', 🟥,
90+3', 0 - 2, ⚽,
90+6', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Apertura: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uruguay Montevideo won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Uruguay Montevideo won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Uruguay Montevideo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.8:1).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Atenas	21	12	4	5	30:18	12	40
14	Uruguay Montevideo	21	4	5	12	19:31	-12	17

Last Results with these Odds

Uruguay Montevideo - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 32.55%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
08.08.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Paysandú	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Huracán Paso de la Arena - Uruguay Montevideo	1:3 ✺
18.07.26	Uruguay Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
12.07.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	1:1 ✺
05.07.26	Colón Montevideo - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWTTL
- Atenas de San Carlos
Uruguayan Segunda Division
09.08.26	Oriental de La Paz - Atenas de San Carlos	0:1 ✺
03.08.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Colón Montevideo	4:1 ✺
26.07.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Atenas de San Carlos	1:0 ✺
12.07.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Rentistas	1:3 ✺
06.07.26	Miramar Misiones - Atenas de San Carlos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
08.05.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Uruguay Montevideo	2:1
31.03.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Uruguay Montevideo	0:1
16.08.25	Uruguay Montevideo - Atenas de San Carlos	1:2
25.05.25	Atenas de San Carlos - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0
10.03.25	Atenas de San Carlos - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0
12.10.24	Atenas de San Carlos - Uruguay Montevideo	1:1
06.07.24	Uruguay Montevideo - Atenas de San Carlos	1:1

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