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Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 8
  • Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday
  • Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)
  • Referee: Sanchez J. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Rayo Vallecano Athletic Bilbao
    Rayo Vallecano Athletic Bilbao
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.96 ↑
    (2.9)    		 3.28 ↓
    (3.46)    		 2.49 ↑
    (2.39)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

    • The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Rayo Vallecano
    32.3%    		Draw
    29.2%    		Athletic Bilbao
    38.5%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    32.8% 27.5% 39.8%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    32.5% 27.2% 40.2%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Rayo Vallecano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)
  • Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    22.7% 50% 27.3%

    Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Athletic will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 52.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31% โ€“ 73.8%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 3.5 - under (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    25. IndonesiaAudero E. (G)
    20. AlbaniaBalliu I.
    24. FranceLejeune F.
    15. SpainSadick M.
    17. SpainPedrosa A.
      4. SpainDiaz P.
      6. SenegalCiss P.
      8. SpainLopez U.
    19. Spainde Frutos J.
    10. SpainCamello S.
    18. SpainGarcia A. (C)
    		  1. SpainSimon U. (G)
    12. SpainAreso J.
      5. SpainAlvarez Y.
      4. SpainParedes A.
    17. SpainBerchiche Y.
    24. SpainGerenabarrena B.
    16. SpainRuiz de Galarreta I.
    23. SpainNavarro R.
    28. SpainCanales P.
      7. SpainBerenguer A.
      9. GhanaWilliams I. (C)
    Substitutes
      9. BrazilAlemao
    34. SpainAlonso Martin I.
    36. SpainBouare G.
      1. SpainCardenas D. (G)
      3. AlbaniaKumbulla M.
      5. ItalyLuiz Felipe
    11. AngolaNteka R.
      7. SpainPalazon I.
    21. SpainPerez F.
    14. GeorgiaTsitaishvili G.
    23. SpainValentin O.
    33. NetherlandsVertrouwd J.
    		25. Guinea-BissauDjalo A.
    11. SpainGuruzeta G.
    33. SpainImga C.
    18. SpainJauregizar M.
    31. FranceLouis-Jean J.
    13. MexicoPadilla A. (G)
      6. SpainPrados Diaz B.
    20. SpainRego A.
    15. SpainRincon H.
    21. MoroccoSannadi M.
    22. SpainSerrano N.
      3. SpainVivian D.
    Coaches
         SpainSan Jose B.
    		     GermanyTerzic E.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)

    Preview

  • Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 12th and 10th).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 0.
  • Rayo Vallecano has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
  • Athletic is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
  • Rayo Vallecano could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
  • In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
  • Confirmed absences for Rayo Vallecano: Batalla A. (Broken calfbone).
  • Confirmed absences for Athletic: Djalo A. (Illness) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Sancet O. (Muscle Injury) Williams N. (Thigh Injury).
  • Doubtful / questionable for Rayo Vallecano: Balliu I. (Ankle Injury) Luiz Felipe (Hamstring Injury).
  • In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Rayo Vallecano has recorded 3 wins, 4 draws, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:35 (averaging 0.9:1.8 goals per game).
  • Specifically in home fixtures for Rayo Vallecano against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with 7:15 goals (averaging 0.7:1.5 per game).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    11Ath Bilbao62227:618
    13Rayo Vallecano722311:16-58

    Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Ath Bilbao: 0.18% Rayo Vallecano: 0.06%
    Last Results with these Odds

    Rayo Vallecano - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 32.77%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Rayo Vallecano
    Spanish LaLiga
    19.09.26 Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano 1:1 ✺
    15.09.26 Rayo Vallecano - Espanyol 2:1 ✺
    12.09.26 Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 4:1 ✺
    05.09.26 Rayo Vallecano - Racing Santander 3:2 ✺
    31.08.26 Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano 5:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7
    TWLWL
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Club Friendly
    02.10.26 Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao 0:1 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    19.09.26 Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavรฉs 0:0 ✺
    12.09.26 Athletic Bilbao - Elche 1:1 ✺
    05.09.26 Athletic Bilbao - Atlรฉtico Madrid 3:0 ✺
    30.08.26 Celta de Vigo - Athletic Bilbao 0:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8
    WTTWW
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    28.02.26 Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao 1:1
    25.08.25 Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Vallecano 1:0
    13.04.25 Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Vallecano 3:1
    01.12.24 Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao 1:2
    25.05.24 Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao 0:1
    02.12.23 Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Vallecano 4:0
    05.03.23 Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao 0:0
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Rayo Vallecano
    Spanish LaLiga
    24.10.26 Rayo Vallecano - Elche ✺
    19.10.26 Getafe - Rayo Vallecano ✺
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    21.10.26 Levante - Athletic Bilbao ✺
    17.10.26 Valencia - Athletic Bilbao ✺

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