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Athletic Bilbao - Elche

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 5
  • Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Estadio San Mamรฉs (Bilbao) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Orellana M. (Esp)
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    Athletic Bilbao Elche
    Athletic Bilbao Elche
    1 X 2
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    Bovada 1.42 5.20 7.60
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.41 ↓
    (1.63)    		 4.92 ↑
    (3.94)    		 7.7 ↑
    (5.31)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 6.75

    • The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Athletic Bilbao
    68.1%    		Draw
    19.5%    		Elche
    12.4%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    58.1% 24% 17.8%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    53% 21.9% 19.5%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletic Bilbao's performance.
  • Elche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Elche might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-15.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletic Bilbao that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elche than the current prediction. (+7.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Elche could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    91.4% 5.7% 2.9%

    Athletic Bilbao - Elche Predictions

  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2 - over (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1 - Athletic (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1.5 - Elche (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Athletic Bilbao will win (32 of 35 users predict this - 91.43%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 82.16% โ€“ 100%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Athletic Bilbao will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) ๐Ÿฅ‰ Bronze Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Elche (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. SpainSimon U. (G)
    12. SpainAreso J.
      5. SpainAlvarez Y.
    14. SpainLaporte A.
    17. SpainBerchiche Y.
    16. SpainRuiz de Galarreta I.
    24. SpainGerenabarrena B.
    23. SpainNavarro R.
      8. SpainSancet O.
    10. SpainWilliams N.
      9. GhanaWilliams I. (C)
    		  1. ArgentinaDituro M. (C)
      2. SpainBuba Sangare
      5. ArgentinaRedondo Solari F.
    23. SpainChust V.
      3. IsraelRevivo R.
    11. SpainValera G.
    47. SpainMorcillo J.
    12. SpainVillar G.
    20. SpainTete Morente
    10. ArgentinaBuonanotte F.
    14. SpainNino F.
    Substitutes
      7. SpainBerenguer A.
    25. Guinea-BissauDjalo A.
    18. SpainJauregizar M.
    31. FranceLouis-Jean J.
    30. SpainMonreal I.
    13. MexicoPadilla A. (G)
      4. SpainParedes A.
      6. SpainPrados Diaz B.
    20. SpainRego A.
    15. SpainRincon H.
    21. MoroccoSannadi M.
    22. SpainSerrano N.
    		  8. SpainAguado M.
    26. CroatiaBarzic M.
      6. SpainBigas P.
    21. ChileCepeda L.
    19. DRDiangana G.
    13. SpainIturbe A. (G)
    17. SpainJosan
    18. FranceLemar T.
    16. PortugalNeto M.
    24. ArgentinaOsorio A.
      9. ArgentinaPonce E.
    22. SpainSanchez R.
    Coaches
         GermanyTerzic E.
    		     ArgentinaAnselmi M.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
    • 50', 0 - 1, Buonanotte F. (Penalty Awarded),
    • 56', Redondo Solari F. 🟨,
    • 65', Areso J. ↓, Louis-Jean J. ↑,
    • 65', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Jauregizar M. ↑,
    • 69', Nino F. ↓, Osorio A. ↑,
    • 69', Buonanotte F. ↓, Lemar T. ↑,
    • 72', Navarro R. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
    • 75', Osorio A. 🟨,
    • 76', Tete Morente ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
    • 79', 1 - 1, Williams I. ⚽, Berenguer A. (A),
    • 81', Berenguer A. 🟨,
    • 81', Gerenabarrena B. 🟨,
    • 81', Williams I. ↓, Sannadi M. ↑,
    • 82', Valera G. ↓, Cepeda L. ↑,
    • 83', Villar G. ↓, Neto M. ↑,
    • 90+6', Sanchez R. 🟨,
    • 90+7', Berchiche Y. 🟨,

    Preview

  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 3.
  • Recent performances by Athletic have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
  • Elche's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins โ€“ 0).
  • Elche may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
  • In this match, Athletic is the clear favorite.
  • There will not play in Athletic: Canales P. (Muscle Injury) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Guruzeta G. (Hamstring Injury) Vivian D. (Hamstring Injury)
  • There will not play in Elche: Santiago Y. (Knee Injury)
  • In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.3:1).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1.3:1.2).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    8Ath Bilbao933312:9312
    15Elche1024414:17-310

    Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Ath Bilbao: 0.45% Elche: 0.14%
    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    05.09.26 Athletic Bilbao - Atlรฉtico Madrid 3:0 ✺
    30.08.26 Celta de Vigo - Athletic Bilbao 0:2 ✺
    27.08.26 Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao 2:0 ✺
    22.08.26 Athletic Bilbao - Sevilla 1:3 ✺
    Club Friendly
    14.08.26 Atalanta - Athletic Bilbao 1:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7
    WWLLL
    - Elche CF
    Spanish LaLiga
    07.09.26 Elche - Real Sociedad 2:3 ✺
    28.08.26 Racing Santander - Elche 3:2 ✺
    23.08.26 Elche - Barcelona 0:5 ✺
    17.08.26 Deportivo A Coruรฑa - Elche 1:1 ✺
    Club Friendly
    31.07.26 Elche - Cรณrdoba 2:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6
    LLLTT
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    20.02.26 Athletic Bilbao - Elche 2:1
    19.10.25 Elche - Athletic Bilbao 0:0
    28.05.23 Athletic Bilbao - Elche 0:1
    11.09.22 Elche - Athletic Bilbao 1:4
    03.04.22 Athletic Bilbao - Elche 2:1
    16.08.21 Elche - Athletic Bilbao 0:0
    22.05.21 Elche - Athletic Bilbao 2:0
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    01.11.26 Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    29.10.26 Prat - Athletic Bilbao ✺
    - Elche CF
    Spanish LaLiga
    01.11.26 Elche - Valencia ✺

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