Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 10

Date: 31 October 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Lugo		Barakaldo

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.9	3.4
				Watch
	2.1	3.05	3.45
	2.44	2.83	3.17	Watch
	2.17	3.08	3.39
	2.1	2.95	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.44)	2.96 ↑ (2.83)	3.37 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
42%

Draw
30.9%

Barakaldo
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

32.8%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

33.5%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Lugo - Barakaldo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piedra I. (G) 24. Gaya J. 4. Trigueros P. 17. Caballo D. 20. Lopez I. 23. Junior L. 10. Alba T. 14. Presa K. 9. Celorio N. 19. Unzueta I. 11. Pastrana V.	1. Ispizua I. (G) 24. Ropero I. 2. de Jesus B. 4. Dufur U. 16. Lopez O. 9. Valino A. 8. Huidobro J. 5. Molina E. 21. San Bartolome V. 17. de Leon J. 11. Perez E.
Substitutes
8. Balboa A. 36. Candal J. (G) 5. Carbonell A. 3. Garriz I. 7. Gonzalez J. 16. Jose Amo 2. Merino J. 6. Nicholas N. 15. Reniero N. 18. Roson D. 22. Samanes S. 21. Teofilovic O.	23. Albizua U. 18. Arana M. 13. Campos G. (G) 19. Galarza A. 3. Garcia B. 20. Mandiang S. 14. Munoz I. 7. Pedernales I. 10. Sabin 22. Torra M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
21', Lopez I. 🟨,
26', 0 - 1, San Bartolome V. ⚽,
34', 1 - 1, Celorio N. ⚽,
37', 1 - 2, Huidobro J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Presa K. 🟨,
64', Junior L. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
64', Unzueta I. ↓, Samanes S. ↑,
64', Pastrana V. ↓, Reniero N. ↑,
67', San Bartolome V. ↓, Galarza A. ↑,
70', 🟨,
73', Presa K. ↓, Carbonell A. ↑,
73', Celorio N. ↓, Balboa A. ↑,
76', Dufur U. 🟨,
78', de Leon J. ↓, Arana M. ↑,
78', Ropero I. ↓, Albizua U. ↑,
86', 2 - 2, Reniero N. (Pen),
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

In recent matches, Lugo has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Barakaldo is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Lugo could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lugo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Lugo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Barakaldo - the odds 3.17 are the expected chance of winning is 29.25%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.10.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Lugo	0:0 ✺
18.10.25	Lugo - Celta de Vigo B	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Arenas Club de Getxo - Lugo	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Lugo - Cacereño	1:0 ✺
26.09.25	Talavera de la Reina - Lugo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TWTWL
- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
24.10.25	Barakaldo - Tenerife	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	CD Guadalajara - Barakaldo	1:1 ✺
10.10.25	Barakaldo - Athletic Bilbao B	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Arenteiro - Barakaldo	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Barakaldo - Cacereño	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.03.25	Barakaldo - Lugo	3:2
15.09.24	Lugo - Barakaldo	0:0

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