Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 11

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Pedro Escartín (Guadalajara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	CD Guadalajara		Lugo

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.88	3
	2.38	2.98	2.98
	2.45	3.11	2.99
	2.43	2.61	3.57	Watch
	2.4	2.91	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.23)	2.9 ↓ (2.95)	3.1 ↓ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

CD Guadalajara
38.4%

Draw
31.8%

Lugo
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

30.8%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

31.5%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CD Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

CD Guadalajara - Lugo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Guadalajara (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zarco A. (G) 16. Cera 4. Ablanque J. 5. Gallardo D. 18. Martinez J. 21. Ramirez M. 22. Samuel 7. Neskes 6. Rojo P. 19. Munoz P. 10. Amigo D.	13. Piedra I. (G) 6. Nicholas N. 4. Trigueros P. 16. Jose Amo 20. Lopez I. 22. Samanes S. 5. Carbonell A. (C) 8. Balboa A. 10. Alba T. 15. Reniero N. 7. Gonzalez J.
Substitutes
9. Canizo A. 23. Casado J. 20. Diaz B. 17. Gil A. 27. Mayo N. 3. Moreno A. 15. Rodriguez V. 29. Verdu M. 13. Vicente D. (G)	9. Celorio N. 3. Garriz I. 24. Gaya J. 23. Junior L. 1. Martinez M. (G) 2. Merino J. 11. Pastrana V. 14. Presa K. 18. Roson D. 21. Teofilovic O. 19. Unzueta I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Alba T. 🟨,
29', Neskes 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 1 - 0, Munoz P. ⚽,
55', Piedra I. 🟨,
55', Jose Amo 🟨,
61', 🟨,
66', 🟨,
68', 1 - 1, Reniero N. ⚽,
69', Ramirez M. ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
69', Neskes ↓, Canizo A. ↑,
77', Balboa A. 🟨,
82', Martinez J. ↓, Gil A. ↑,
82', Balboa A. ↓, Presa K. ↑,
82', Nicholas N. ↓, Gaya J. ↑,
88', Munoz P. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 10).

Guadalajara has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lugo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Guadalajara won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

CD Guadalajara - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 40.59%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Lugo - the odds 3.16 are the expected chance of winning is 28.65%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Guadalajara
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
01.11.25	CD Guadalajara - Mérida AD	0:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	CD Guadalajara - Cacereño	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.10.25	Arenas Club de Getxo - CD Guadalajara	3:0 ✺
18.10.25	CD Guadalajara - Barakaldo	1:1 ✺
12.10.25	Arenteiro - CD Guadalajara	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLTT
- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
31.10.25	Lugo - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
26.10.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Lugo	0:0 ✺
18.10.25	Lugo - Celta de Vigo B	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Arenas Club de Getxo - Lugo	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Lugo - Cacereño	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
02.06.13	CD Guadalajara - Lugo	0:1
06.01.13	Lugo - CD Guadalajara	0:0

Upcoming Matches