Match Info

Serie B - Round 15

Date: 28 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Referee: Muniz dos Santos D. C. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Athletic Club		Avaí

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.25	4.1	Watch
	1.95	3.10	3.80
	1.95	3.2	3.85	Watch
	2.02	3.36	4.12
	1.99	3.19	3.98	Watch
	1.96	3.25	3.95
	1.96	3.26	3.91	Watch
	1.97	3.2	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.91)	3.23 ↓ (3.31)	3.95 ↓ (3.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
47.5%

Draw
28.9%

Avaí
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

28%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

27.9%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Athletic Club - Avaí Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Avaí (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Athletic Club will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 1 - 50%). Avaí (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luan Polli (G) 2. Douglas Pele 6. Zeca (C) 13. Felipe Vieira 3. Jhonatan Silva 16. Joao Miguel 11. Max 15. Jota 17. Kauan Rodrigues 23. Enzo Santos 5. Ian Luccas	1. Igor Bohn (G) 52. Wesley Gasolina 3. Allyson 50. Joao Maistro 36. DG 77. Ze Ricardo (C) 8. Luiz Henrique 43. Thayllon 10. Jean Lucas 11. Sorriso 9. Leo Gamalho
Substitutes
19. Alexandre Pena 7. Bruninho 8. Cabezas G. 22. Diogo Batista 10. Eduardo Filipe 9. Gabriel Moyses 12. Glauco (G) 4. Gustavo Morais 20. Luiz Fernando 14. Marcelo Henrique 18. Pedro Oliveira 21. Vera D.	14. Daniel Penha 4. Gabriel Simples 16. Jamerson 29. Marcio Vitor 21. Otavio Passos (G) 25. Paulo Vitor 2. Wallison 95. Wenderson 56. William
Coaches
Alex Souza	Cauan de Almeida

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Luiz Henrique 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sorriso ↓, Daniel Penha ↑,
46', Luiz Henrique ↓, Paulo Vitor ↑,
56', Douglas Pele ↓, Bruninho ↑,
63', Kauan Rodrigues 🟨,
67', Thayllon ↓, William ↑,
69', Max ↓, Luiz Fernando ↑,
69', Jota ↓, Vera D. ↑,
78', Jean Lucas ↓, Wenderson ↑,
89', 1 - 0, Vera D. ⚽, Zeca (A),
90+1', Enzo Santos ↓, Marcelo Henrique ↑,
90+1', Kauan Rodrigues ↓, Cabezas G. ↑,
90+2', Joao Maistro ↓, Marcio Vitor ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Avaí may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Athletic is the team to beat.

There will not play in Athletic: Belezi (Red Card) Gabriel Indio (Inactive) Rodrigo Gelado (Injury) Sidimar (Inactive) Tavares R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Avaí: Isaias (Injury) Jefferson Maciel (Injury)

There are questionable in Avaí: Bruno Baldini (Inactive) Cristiano (Inactive) Pedro Cuiaba (Inactive) Rafael Bilu (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Athletic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32:43	-11	33

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
20.06.26	Londrina - Athletic Club	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Athletic Club - Goiás	1:1 ✺
10.06.26	Sport Recife - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
30.05.26	Athletic Club - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
25.05.26	Botafogo SP - Athletic Club	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 LTTWW
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
21.06.26	Avaí - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
15.06.26	Londrina - Avaí	3:2 ✺
10.06.26	Ceará - Avaí	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
07.06.26	Chapecoense - Avaí	3:1 penalties ✺
03.06.26	Avaí - Chapecoense	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
01.11.25	Avaí - Athletic Club	2:1
14.07.25	Athletic Club - Avaí	4:0

Upcoming Matches