Match Info

Serie B - Round 10

Date: 25 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Santa Cruz (Ribeirao Preto)

Referee: Vasconcelos B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN


	Botafogo SP		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
	2.1	3	3.7	Watch
	2	3.1	3.6
	2.05	2.98	3.85	Watch
	2.25	2.98	4.01
	1.98	3.12	4.2	Watch
	2.15	2.8	3.7
	2.08	2.89	4.07	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.97)	2.98 ↓ (3.12)	3.88 ↓ (4.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo SP
44.7%

Draw
31.3%

Athletic Club
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

29.9%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

29%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	21.4%	28.6%

Botafogo SP - Athletic Club Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Botafogo SP will win (votes: 7 - 50%). Athletic will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Botafogo SP: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Victor Souza (G) 22. Gabriel Inocencio 4. Vilar 13. Wallace (C) 26. Felipe Vieira 8. Everton Morelli 16. Matheus Sales 17. Guilherme Queiroz 10. Rafael Gava 7. Kelvin 9. Hygor	1. Luan Polli (G) 22. Diogo Batista 3. Jhonatan Silva 4. Belezi (C) 14. Marcelo Henrique 17. Kauan Rodrigues 16. Joao Miguel 15. Jota 5. Ian Luccas 11. Max 21. Vera D.
Substitutes
18. Arthur Caike 25. Brenno Klippel (G) 3. Ericson 15. Guilherme Mariano 11. Jefferson Nem 12. Jordan (G) 5. Leandro Maciel 28. Marco Antonio 31. Pedro Henrique 29. Thiago Moraes 23. Wesley Santos 30. Ze Hugo	7. Bruninho 8. Cabezas G. 2. Douglas Pele 20. Gabriel Moyses 10. Gustavinho 12. Jhonatan Luiz (G) 19. Kauan Lindes 18. Pedro Oliveira 6. Zeca
Coaches
Claudio Tencati	Alex Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', Gabriel Inocencio 🟨,
35', Rafael Gava 🟨,
35', Matheus Sales 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, Max ⚽, Ian Luccas (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Matheus Sales ↓, Leandro Maciel ↑,
46', Guilherme Queiroz ↓, Ze Hugo ↑,
46', Luan Polli 🟨,
49', 1 - 1, Everton Morelli ⚽, Rafael Gava (A),
52', Everton Morelli 🟨,
53', Marcelo Henrique 🟨,
56', Leandro Maciel (Penalty Awarded),
63', Jota ↓, Gabriel Moyses ↑,
69', 1 - 2, Diogo Batista ⚽, Ian Luccas (A),
72', Vera D. ↓, Cabezas G. ↑,
72', Marcelo Henrique ↓, Zeca ↑,
75', Felipe Vieira ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
75', Rafael Gava ↓, Marco Antonio ↑,
79', Kelvin ↓, Arthur Caike ↑,
80', Kauan Rodrigues ↓, Pedro Oliveira ↑,
80', Max ↓, Bruninho ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 14).

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Athletic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Botafogo SP could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Botafogo SP: Arthur Caike (Inactive) Carlao (Injury) Darlan (Inactive) Ericson (Knee Injury) Jonathan (Inactive) Leandro Maciel (Inactive) Wallace (Inactive)

There will not play in Athletic: Gabriel Indio (Inactive) Rodrigo Gelado (Inactive) Sidimar (Inactive) Tavares R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Botafogo SP: Everton Morelli (Injury) Hygor (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Botafogo SP won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Botafogo SP won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Athletic Club: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	36:38	-2	38

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
16.05.26	Goiás - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
10.05.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Botafogo SP - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
22.04.26	Cuiabá - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Botafogo SP - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTTT
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.26	Athletic Club - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.05.26	Internacional RS - Athletic Club	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
09.05.26	Athletic Club - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
04.05.26	Vila Nova - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
27.04.26	Athletic Club - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
14.09.25	Athletic Club - Botafogo SP	2:0
12.05.25	Botafogo SP - Athletic Club	0:3

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