Match Info

Serie B - Round 9

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Athletic Club		Juventude

	1	X	2
	2.55	3	2.82	Watch
	2.5	2.95	2.75
	2.52	2.92	2.92	Watch
	2.72	2.98	3.06
	2.75	2.63	3.13	Watch
	2.63	2.7	2.9
	2.57	2.9	2.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.49)	2.87 ↑ (2.7)	2.93 ↓ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
35.7%

Draw
32.5%

Juventude
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

34.6%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

35.1%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Juventude has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Athletic Club - Juventude Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Juventude will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luan Polli (G) 22. Diogo Batista 3. Jhonatan Silva 4. Belezi (C) 14. Marcelo Henrique 16. Joao Miguel 15. Jota 5. Ian Luccas 11. Max 20. Gabriel Moyses 21. Vera D.	93. Jandrei (G) 34. Rodrigo Sam (C) 4. Messias 97. Gabriel Pinheiro 22. Nathan Santos 75. Rai Silva 8. Lucas Mineiro 16. Diogo Barbosa 17. Castro M. 9. Alan Kardec 10. MP
Substitutes
17. Alexandre Pena 8. Cabezas G. 2. Douglas Pele 13. Felipe Vieira 10. Gustavinho 12. Jhonatan Luiz (G) 23. Kauan Lindes 7. Luiz Filipe 18. Pedro Oliveira 19. Ruan Assis 9. Samuel Otusanya 6. Zeca	13. Aderlan 25. Alisson Safira 88. Davi Goes 11. Fabio Lima 79. Joao Scatolin 15. Leo Indio 26. Ly I. 12. Pedro Rocha (G) 27. Ray Breno 21. Ruan Carneiro (G) 3. Titi 6. Wadson
Coaches
Alex Souza	Mauricio Barbieri

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Vera D. ⚽, Max (A),
30', Rai Silva 🟨,
32', Diogo Barbosa 🟨,
36', Gabriel Pinheiro 🟨,
36', Ruan Assis 🟨,
44', Max 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Nathan Santos ↓, Aderlan ↑,
53', MP ↓, Leo Indio ↑,
60', Gabriel Moyses ↓, Samuel Otusanya ↑,
65', Vera D. ↓, Ruan Assis ↑,
67', Diogo Barbosa ↓, Wadson ↑,
67', Lucas Mineiro ↓, Fabio Lima ↑,
74', Max ↓, Douglas Pele ↑,
74', Ian Luccas ↓, Cabezas G. ↑,
75', Castro M. ↓, Alisson Safira ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Rai Silva ⚽, Alisson Safira (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 9).

Athletic has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Juventude has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Athletic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Athletic: Bruninho (Yellow Cards) Gabriel Indio (Inactive) Kauan Rodrigues (Yellow Cards) Rodrigo Gelado (Inactive) Ruan Assis (Inactive) Sidimar (Inactive) Tavares R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Juventude: Alan Ruschel (Muscle Injury) Allanzinho (Injury) Luan Martins (Yellow Cards) Pablo Roberto (Injury) Patryck (Inactive) Rai Ramos (Inactive)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Juventude	32	17	8	7	37:19	18	59
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Club - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.55%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Copa do Brasil
12.05.26	Internacional RS - Athletic Club	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
09.05.26	Athletic Club - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
04.05.26	Vila Nova - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
27.04.26	Athletic Club - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Athletic Club - Internacional RS	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LTTLL
- EC Juventude
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Juventude - São Paulo	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
09.05.26	Juventude - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	Juventude - Tombense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	Atlético Goianiense - Juventude	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
30.04.26	Cianorte - Juventude	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WTWTL

Upcoming Matches