Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 July 2024, Thursday

Location: Ligga Arena (Curitiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN 2
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, FuboTV
Chile	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Georgia	Silk Universal
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Netherlands	ESPN 1, ESPN 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
South-america	ESPN South
Usa	beIN Connect, FuboTV
World	Amazon Prime Video, DirecTV Sports, Disney+, Fanatiz


	Athletico Paranaense		Cerro Porteño

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.2	8	Watch
	1.47	4	7
	1.45	4	7.5	Watch
	1.45	4.26	8.17
	1.47	4.15	7.73	Watch
	1.4	4	7.5
	1.44	4.2	7.55	Watch
	1.45	4.1	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.63)	4.11 ↑ (3.45)	7.61 ↑ (5.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
64.8%

Draw
22.9%

Cerro Porteño
12.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

26.5%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

26.3%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletico Paranaense's performance.

Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletico Paranaense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cerro Porteño could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Athletico Paranaense - Cerro Porteño Predictions

Users Predictions: Athletico Paranaense will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Leo Linck (G) 4. Kaique Rocha 44. Thiago Heleno (C) 37. Esquivel L. 28. Cuello 26. Erick 5. Fernandinho 14. Canobbio A. 10. Zapelli B. 88. Christian 9. Gonzalo Mastriani	1. Martin A. (G) 7. Gimenez E. 24. Baez C. 4. Eduardo Brock 34. Benitez M. 11. Iturbe J. 5. Morel J. 26. Piris R. 22. Rodriguez D. 19. Diego Churin (C) 8. Carrizo F.
Substitutes
7. Di Yorio L. 6. Fernando 3. Gabriel 15. Gamarra M. 29. Godoy L. 57. Joao Cruz 20. Julimar 22. Madson 41. Mycael (G) 34. Nikao 92. Pablo 63. Riquelme D.	32. Cabanas V. 6. Carrascal R. 9. Da Costa F. 28. Farina A. 40. Fernandez F. 37. Leon D. 48. Marecos T. 12. Martinez M. (G) 15. Melgarejo R. 36. Olmedo L. 16. Paez Torales E. R. 39. Portillo Avalos T. G.
Coaches
Varini M.	Jimenez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Gonzalo Mastriani ⚽, Cuello (A),
22', Fernandinho 🟨,
26', Zapelli B. 🟨,
30', Benitez M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Benitez M. ↓, Cabanas V. ↑,
59', 2 - 0, Cuello ⚽,
60', Diego Churin ↓, Da Costa F. ↑,
60', Rodriguez D. ↓, Fernandez F. ↑,
66', Zapelli B. 🟨,
68', 2 - 1, Fernandez F. ⚽,
71', Gonzalo Mastriani ↓, Di Yorio L. ↑,
71', Cabanas V. 🟨,
74', Eduardo Brock ↓, Carrascal R. ↑,
80', Fernandinho ↓, Gamarra M. ↑,
83', Cabanas V. 🟨,
85', Cuello ↓, Godoy L. ↑,
85', Christian ↓, Gabriel ↑,
87', Iturbe J. ↓, Olmedo L. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Athletico PR could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Cerro Porteño have a series of home games.

In this match Athletico PR is certain favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Athletico PR won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Athletico PR won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
21.07.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
18.07.24	Cerro Porteño - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.07.24	Athletico Paranaense - Ypiranga	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.07.24	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	1:3 ✺
07.07.24	Atlético Goianiense - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LTWLW
- Cerro Porteño
Copa Sudamericana
18.07.24	Cerro Porteño - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
29.06.24	Cerro Porteño - Kilmarnock	2:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
05.06.24	Nacional Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	0:2 ✺
02.06.24	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Luqueño	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.05.24	Cerro Porteño - Colo-Colo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
18.07.24	Cerro Porteño - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
Club Friendly
29.06.19	Athletico Paranaense - Cerro Porteño	0:2

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