Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 July 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio General Pablo Rojas (Asunción)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Connect
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Canada	beIN Connect, FuboTV
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
South-america	DGO Latin America
Usa	beIN Connect, FuboTV
World	Amazon Prime Video, DirecTV Sports, Disney+, Fanatiz


	Cerro Porteño		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	2.75	3	2.8	Watch
	2.65	3	2.75
	2.7	3	2.75	Watch
	2.76	2.99	2.87
	2.7	3.01	2.88	Watch
	2.5	3	2.7
	2.65	3.02	2.77	Watch
	2.7	3	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.59)	3 ↓ (3.11)	2.78 ↑ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro Porteño
35.1%

Draw
31.2%

Athletico Paranaense
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

30%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

29.7%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Athletico Paranaense aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	45.5%	36.4%

Cerro Porteño - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Jean (G) 4. Eduardo Brock 24. Baez C. 34. Benitez M. 5. Morel J. 7. Gimenez E. 8. Carrizo F. 26. Piris R. 11. Iturbe J. 19. Diego Churin (C) 22. Rodriguez D.	24. Leo Linck (G) 29. Godoy L. 4. Kaique Rocha 44. Thiago Heleno (C) 37. Esquivel L. 26. Erick 5. Fernandinho 20. Julimar 10. Zapelli B. 28. Cuello 7. Di Yorio L.
Substitutes
17. Aguayo G. 32. Cabanas V. 6. Carrascal R. 9. Da Costa F. 28. Farina A. 40. Fernandez F. 37. Leon D. 1. Martin A. (G) 15. Melgarejo R. 36. Olmedo L. 16. Paez Torales E. R. 39. Portillo Avalos T. G.	14. Canobbio A. 88. Christian 90. Emersonn 6. Fernando 3. Gabriel 15. Gamarra M. 9. Gonzalo Mastriani 57. Joao Cruz 22. Madson 41. Mycael (G) 92. Pablo 63. Riquelme D.
Coaches
Jimenez M.	Varini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, Benitez M. ⚽, Rodriguez D. (A),
45', Jean ↓, Martin A. ↑,
45+4', Godoy L. 🟨,
45+4', Julimar 🟨,
45+8', Diego Churin (Pen),
45+8', Piris R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Julimar ↓, Christian ↑,
58', Zapelli B. ↓, Canobbio A. ↑,
58', Cuello ↓, Pablo ↑,
62', Rodriguez D. ↓, Aguayo G. ↑,
62', Diego Churin ↓, Da Costa F. ↑,
63', Baez C. 🟨,
67', Christian 🟨,
69', 1 - 1, Christian ⚽,
71', Gimenez E. 🟨,
79', Fernandinho (Pen),
79', Di Yorio L. ↓, Gonzalo Mastriani ↑,
82', Pablo 🟨,
90', Esquivel L. ↓, Fernando ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Cerro Porteño is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Athletico PR is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Cerro Porteño could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Cerro Porteño won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerro Porteño
Club Friendly
29.06.24	Cerro Porteño - Kilmarnock	2:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
05.06.24	Nacional Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	0:2 ✺
02.06.24	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Luqueño	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.05.24	Cerro Porteño - Colo-Colo	1:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.05.24	Tacuary - Cerro Porteño	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWLTW
- Athletico Paranaense
Copa do Brasil
13.07.24	Athletico Paranaense - Ypiranga	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.07.24	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	1:3 ✺
07.07.24	Atlético Goianiense - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
03.07.24	Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
30.06.24	Vitória Salvador - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
29.06.19	Athletico Paranaense - Cerro Porteño	0:2

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