Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 17

Date: 19 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Raulino de Oliveira (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: dos Santos F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Volta Redonda		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.88	2.88	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.45
	3.1	2.82	2.48
	2.9	2.84	2.92
	3.04	2.70	2.70	Watch
	3.1	2.8	2.5
	3.16	2.8	2.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↓ (3.06)	2.82 ↓ (3.23)	2.64 ↑ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Volta Redonda
31.3%

Draw
33.3%

Athletico Paranaense
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

28.9%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

27.9%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Volta Redonda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Volta Redonda than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletico Paranaense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	11.1%	44.4%

Volta Redonda - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Volta Redonda will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Volta Redonda: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Volta Redonda (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jean Drosny (G) 26. Gabriel Bahia 3. Gabriel Pinheiro 5. Bruno Barra (C) 13. Jhonny 6. Sanchez 16. Rai 20. Pierre 7. Lucas Tocantins 11. MV 9. Italo	1. Mycael (G) 14. Moraes K. 45. Belezi 3. Leo (C) 37. Esquivel L. 31. Raul 5. Felipinho 88. Patrick 10. Zapelli B. 17. Mendoza S. 27. Alan Kardec
Substitutes
28. Andre Luiz 14. Chay 4. Fabricio 29. Heliardo 21. Henrique Silva 22. Juninho Monteiro 8. Leo Ceara 23. Matheus Lucas 10. PK 17. Vitinho Lopes 2. Wellington Silva 31. Yago Oliveira (G)	33. Aguirre Tabares J. F. 53. Dudu Kogitzki 8. Giuliano 28. Habraao 57. Joao Cruz 61. Leo Derik 21. Leozinho 70. Renan Peixoto 23. Santos (G) 30. Tevis 7. Velasco K. 9. Viveros K.
Coaches
Rogerio Correa	Hellmann O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
24', 0 - 1, Alan Kardec ⚽, Esquivel L. (A),
39', 0 - 2, Zapelli B. ⚽, Moraes K. (A),
41', Leo 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Lucas Tocantins ↓, Andre Luiz ↑,
46', Bruno Barra ↓, PK ↑,
47', PK 🟨,
51', Gabriel Bahia 🟨,
51', Felipinho 🟨,
55', 1 - 2, MV ⚽, Rai (A),
63', Patrick ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
63', Alan Kardec ↓, Viveros K. ↑,
67', 2 - 2, Andre Luiz ⚽, Pierre (A),
77', Jhonny ↓, Wellington Silva ↑,
77', Pierre ↓, Chay ↑,
81', 3 - 2, Italo ⚽, PK (A),
83', Zapelli B. ↓, Giuliano ↑,
83', Felipinho ↓, Leozinho ↑,
84', Rai ↓, Fabricio ↑,
89', Raul ↓, Renan Peixoto ↑,
90+1', Giuliano 🟨,
90+1', Esquivel L. 🟨,
90+3', Sanchez 🟨,
90+4', Esquivel L. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 8).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Athletico PR may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Volta Redonda: Du Fernandes (Inactive) Fabricio (Inactive) Lucas Adell (Injury)

There will not play in Athletico PR: Dudu Marques (Inactive) Isaac (Inactive) Julimar (Knee Injury) Madson (Inactive) Palacios H. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Volta Redonda: Caio Roque (Inactive) Marquinhos (Inactive)

There are questionable in Athletico PR: Luiz Fernando (Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Athletico Paranaense - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 40.51%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Volta Redonda
Brazilian Serie B
14.07.25	Botafogo SP - Volta Redonda	0:0 ✺
04.07.25	Coritiba - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
29.06.25	Volta Redonda - Operário Ferroviario	1:0 ✺
22.06.25	Atlético Goianiense - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
17.06.25	Volta Redonda - Avaí	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TLWLT
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie B
12.07.25	Athletico Paranaense - Goiás	0:1 ✺
05.07.25	Amazonas - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
28.06.25	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
21.06.25	Avaí - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
14.06.25	Athletico Paranaense - Remo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWLWW

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