Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 1

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)

Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Chapecoense		Santos

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.2	2.5	Watch
	3	3.2	2.3
	2.82	3.15	2.52	Watch
	2.95	3.21	2.57
	2.98	3.24	2.48	Watch
	2.9	3	2.45
	2.93	3.22	2.56	Watch
	3	3.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (3.13)	3.18 ↑ (3.17)	2.48 ↑ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
32.2%

Draw
29.7%

Santos
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

29.4%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Chapecoense - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Santos will win (votes: 8 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santos: 55.2% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Santos (1.84) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +0.25 - Chapecoense (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Santos will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Chapecoense (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Santos (votes: 8 - 88.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Leo Vieira (G) 25. Victor Caetano 3. Eduardo Doma 4. Joao Paulo 2. Marcos Vinicius 27. Camilo Reijers 99. Rafael Carvalheira 10. Giovanni Augusto (C) 37. Clar W. 7. Marcinho 77. Italo	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 4. Duarte A. 14. Luan Peres 3. Vinicius Lira 5. Joao Schmidt (C) 6. Ze Rafael 25. Gabriel Menino 30. Miguelito 17. Caballero G. 19. Diaz L.
Substitutes
11. Bolasie Y. 33. Bruno Leonardo 19. David Antunes 26. Everton 22. Higor Meritao 20. Jean Carlos 5. Joao Vitor 21. Kauan 9. Pedro Perotti 1. Rafael Santos (G) 8. Robert Conceicao 70. Rubens Ricoldi	22. Barreal A. 1. Diogenes (G) 31. Escobar G. 55. Fernando Tank 49. Gabriel Bontempo 13. Joao Basso 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 47. Mateus Xavier 8. Rincon T. 7. Robinho Jr. 32. Rollheiser B. 2. Ze Ivaldo
Coaches
Gilmar Pozzo	Vojvoda J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', Duarte A. 🟨,
15', Gabriel Brazao 🟨,
16', 1 - 0, Clar W. (Penalty Awarded),
40', Marcos Vinicius 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Gabriel Menino ⚽, Igor Vinicius (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Marcos Vinicius ↓, Everton ↑,
46', Caballero G. ↓, Barreal A. ↑,
58', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
58', Marcinho ↓, Bolasie Y. ↑,
63', Camilo Reijers 🟨,
67', 1 - 2, Barreal A. ⚽, Ze Rafael (A),
68', Camilo Reijers ↓, Higor Meritao ↑,
73', 2 - 2, Higor Meritao ⚽, Joao Paulo (A),
75', Joao Paulo ↓, Robert Conceicao ↑,
77', Diaz L. ↓, Fernando Tank ↑,
78', Ze Rafael ↓, Robinho Jr. ↑,
80', 3 - 2, Jean Carlos ⚽,
81', Gabriel Menino 🟨,
84', Miguelito ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
89', Gabriel Menino ↓, Gabriel Bontempo ↑,
90', 4 - 2, Rafael Carvalheira ⚽, Jean Carlos (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 1.

Chapecoense is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Santos has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Chapecoense: Bruno Matias (Knee Injury) Bruno Pacheco (Injury) Jhonnathan (Inactive) Mancha (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Santos: Gabriel Bontempo (Inactive) Neymar (Knee Injury) Thaciano (Inactive) Tiquinho Soares (Inactive)

There are questionable in Chapecoense: Marlon (Inactive)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 9:21. (average 0.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Chapecoense won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 0.9:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42
20	Chapecoense-SC	28	3	9	16	29:57	-28	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
25.01.26	Chapecoense - Joinville	6:0 ✺
21.01.26	Avaí - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Chapecoense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:0 ✺
14.01.26	Concórdia - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Camboriú - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WTWWL
- Santos FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.01.26	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0 ✺
22.01.26	Santos - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Guarani - Santos	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Palmeiras - Santos	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Santos - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
16.10.24	Chapecoense - Santos	3:2
01.07.24	Santos - Chapecoense	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
17.11.21	Santos - Chapecoense	2:0
01.08.21	Chapecoense - Santos	0:1
01.12.19	Santos - Chapecoense	2:0
31.08.19	Chapecoense - Santos	0:1
12.11.18	Santos - Chapecoense	0:1

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