The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Atlético Grau 37.2%
Draw 29.7%
Alianza Atlético 33.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
47.9%
28.2%
23.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
50%
29.4%
22.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Grau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Grau's form might have worsened.
Alianza Atlético has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Atlético's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (+12.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Grau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (-10.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alianza Atlético, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
50%
50%
Atlético Grau - Alianza Atlético Predictions
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Alianza Atlético will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Alvarez P. (C) 4. Rodriguez D. 27. Tapia R. 3. Tapia I. 25. Alfaro Martinez G. E. 13. Oncoy F. 5. Guarderas R. 10. de la Cruz P. 15. Lavandeira Hernandez P. 20. Vasquez A. 77. Da Luz M.
31. Rivadeneyra S. (G) 16. Fernandez S. 2. Suarez R. 6. Lujan J. 24. Gordillo A. 23. Munoz A. 10. Diaz G. 15. Lupu H. (C) 17. Penilla C. 27. Ingratti J. 29. Molina J.
Substitutes
16. Ataupillco J. 7. Barreto D. 96. Benites Vargas L. E. 33. Calderon A. (G) 21. Correa E. 99. Fernandez A. 6. Rodas E. 9. Ruidiaz R. 8. Vasquez C.
22. del Castillo J. 37. Delgado J. 8. Flores F. 25. Guzman W. 11. Larios Saavedra G. A. 19. Mendieta J. 20. Perez J. 95. Prieto D. (G) 9. Robaldo V.
Coaches
Ameli G.
Urciuoli F.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Penilla C. ⚽, Ingratti J. (A),
40', Munoz A. 🟨,
45+1', Ingratti J. 🟥,
45+4', 1 - 1, Vasquez A. ⚽, Lavandeira Hernandez P. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', 2 - 1, Tapia I. ⚽,
58', Da Luz M. ↓, Barreto D. ↑,
59', Vasquez A. ↓, Fernandez A. ↑,
62', de la Cruz P. 🟨,
66', Gordillo A. ↓, del Castillo J. ↑,
72', Alfaro Martinez G. E. ↓, Rodas E. ↑,
72', Lavandeira Hernandez P. ↓, Benites Vargas L. E. ↑,
73', Penilla C. ↓, Larios Saavedra G. A. ↑,
74', Munoz A. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
82', de la Cruz P. ↓, Correa E. ↑,
82', Diaz G. ↓, Flores F. ↑,
82', Molina J. ↓, Robaldo V. ↑,
90+1', Lupu H. 🟨,
90+1', Benites Vargas L. E. 🟨,
90+5', 3 - 1, Benites Vargas L. E. ⚽, Barreto D. (A),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grau won 0.
Recent performances by Grau have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Alianza Atlético is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Grau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Grau will hold a modest advantage in this match.
There are questionable in Alianza Atlético: Villegas J. C.
(Knee Injury)
In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Grau won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:24. (average 1.4:1.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Grau won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 1.7:1.2).
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Alvarez P. (C) 
Tapia R. 
Tapia I. 
Lavandeira Hernandez P. 
Penilla C. 
Molina J. 
Barreto D. 
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