Match Info

Date: 23 February 2021, Tuesday


	Atlético Madrid		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	2.9	2.9	2.75
	2.9	3	2.7
	3	3	2.8
	2.95	2.95	2.7
	3.03	3.02	2.78
	2.88	3	2.75
	3	3.08	2.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.62)	2.99 ↓ (3.1)	2.77 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 0.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid
32.8%

Draw
32.3%

Chelsea
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

30.9%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

22.6%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Madrid that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chelsea could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53%	22.5%	24.5%

Atlético Madrid - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: 200 users predict this event. Atlético will win (votes: 106 - 53%). Chelsea will win (votes: 49 - 24.5%). It will Tie (votes: 45 - 22.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 46.1% – 59.9%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

1st leg. Neutral location - Arena Națională. No spectators.

Atlético was already of round of 16, has a chance of qtrs (44%), has a chance of semis (20%), has a small chance of final (9%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

Chelsea was already of round of 16, has a good chance of qtrs (56%), has a chance of semis (28%), has a small chance of final (13%), has a small chance of win league (6%).

Recent matches Atlético is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Chelsea is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Atlético could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Chelsea have a series of guest games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
20.02.21	Atlético Madrid - Levante	0:2 ✺
17.02.21	Levante - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
13.02.21	Granada - Atlético Madrid	1:2 ✺
08.02.21	Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo	2:2 ✺
31.01.21	Cádiz - Atlético Madrid	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTWTW
- Chelsea
English Premier League
20.02.21	Southampton - Chelsea	1:1 ✺
15.02.21	Chelsea - Newcastle United	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
11.02.21	Barnsley - Chelsea	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
07.02.21	Sheffield United - Chelsea	1:2 ✺
04.02.21	Tottenham Hotspur - Chelsea	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
05.12.17	Chelsea - Atlético Madrid	1:1
27.09.17	Atlético Madrid - Chelsea	1:2
30.04.14	Chelsea - Atlético Madrid	1:3
22.04.14	Atlético Madrid - Chelsea	0:0
UEFA Super Cup
31.08.12	Chelsea - Atlético Madrid	1:4

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