Match Info

ENGLAND: Premier League - Round 14

Date: 4 December 2024, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Harrington T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Showmax, SuperSport Variety 1
Albania	20:30	SuperSport 5
Argentina	16:30	Disney+, ESPN 3
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	06:30	Optus Sport
Austria	20:30	Sky Go Austria
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:30	Arena Sport 5, Moja TV
Brazil	16:30	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	21:30	Nova Sport
Canada	14:30	fubo Sports Network 2 DRM
Chile	16:30	Disney+
China	03:30	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	14:30	Disney+, ESPN 3
Croatia	20:30	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	21:30	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech Republic	20:30	CANAL+ Sport 7, CANAL+ Sport 7
Denmark	20:30	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	21:30	Viaplay
France	20:30	Canal+ Live 5
Germany	20:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 8, WOW
Greece	21:30	Nova Sports Extra 1
Hong Kong	03:30	M Plus Live, Now E, Now Player, NOW Premier League 4
India	01:00	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	02:30	Vidio
Israel	21:30	Sport 1
Italy	20:30	NOW TV, Sky Sport 254
Japan	04:30	U-NEXT
Kosovo	20:30	ART Motion Sport 1, SuperSport 5
Malaysia	03:30	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 3, Sooka
Malta	20:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	13:30	Amazon Prime Video, Fox Sports
Mongolia	03:30	Premier Sports 4
Montenegro	20:30	Arena Sport 3
Netherlands	20:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	08:30	Sky Sport 4, TVWan
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	20:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	20:30	TV3+, Viaplay
Peru	14:30	Disney+
Poland	20:30	Viaplay
Portugal	19:30	DAZN 5
Romania	21:30	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Singapore	03:30	Hub Premier 4, StarHub TV+
Spain	20:30	DAZN 4 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:30	Viaplay, V Sport Extra, V Sport Xtra
Thailand	02:30	True Premier Football 4
Turkey	22:30	beIN Connect
United Kingdom	19:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	16:30	Disney+
Usa	14:30	Peacock TV Premium, Peacock TV, SiriusXM FC
Venezuela	15:30	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	02:30	ON Plus
International	19:30	Disney+, JioTV app


	Southampton		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	9	5.75	1.29
	8.75	6	1.31
	9.2	6.4	1.31	Watch
	9.01	6.12	1.32
	9.14	6.07	1.32	Watch
	9	5.8	1.3
	8.85	6.11	1.34	Watch
	9.2	6.4	1.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.02 ↑ (5.62)	6.08 ↑ (4.54)	1.31 ↓ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
10.7%

Draw
15.9%

Chelsea
73.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

17.1%

21.2%

61.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16%

19.9%

66%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Southampton's form might have worsened.

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chelsea's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Southampton, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chelsea, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.8%	13.6%	79.7%

Southampton - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: Chelsea will win (47 of 57 users predict this - 82.46%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.59% – 92.33%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Lumley J. (G) 14. Bree J. 15. Wood N. 5. Stephens J. (C) 2. Walker-Peters K. 3. Manning R. 9. Armstrong A. 7. Aribo J. 18. Fernandes M. 24. Fraser R. 19. Archer C.	12. Jorgensen F. (G) 27. Gusto M. 2. Disasi A. 4. Adarabioyo T. 3. Cucurella M. 25. Caicedo M. 8. Fernandez E. (C) 11. Madueke N. 20. Palmer C. 14. Joao Felix 18. Nkunku C.
Substitutes
27. Amo-Ameyaw S. 17. Brereton Diaz B. 22. Cornet M. 12. Edwards R. 1. McCarthy A. (G) 8. O'Brien Whitmarsh J. 16. Sugawara Y. 20. Sulemana K. 21. Taylor C.	5. Badiashile B. 6. Colwill L. 22. Dewsbury-Hall K. 15. Jackson N. 45. Lavia R. 7. Neto P. 1. Sanchez R. (G) 19. Sancho J. 40. Veiga R.
Coaches
Martin R.	Maresca E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
7', 0 - 1, Disasi A. ⚽, Fernandez E. (A),
11', 1 - 1, Aribo J. ⚽, Walker-Peters K. (A),
17', 1 - 2, Nkunku C. ⚽, Madueke N. (A),
34', 1 - 3, Madueke N. ⚽, Joao Felix (A),
39', Stephens J. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
47', Armstrong A. 🟨,
62', Fraser R. ↓, Sulemana K. ↑,
62', Armstrong A. ↓, Brereton Diaz B. ↑,
72', Madueke N. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
73', Archer C. ↓, Sugawara Y. ↑,
77', 1 - 4, Palmer C. ⚽,
78', Bree J. ↓, Edwards R. ↑,
79', Fernandes M. ↓, Taylor C. ↑,
79', Cucurella M. ↓, Veiga R. ↑,
79', Palmer C. ↓, Dewsbury-Hall K. ↑,
87', 1 - 5, Sancho J. ⚽, Gusto M. (A),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 2.

Recent matches S`hampton is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Chelsea in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Chelsea could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Chelsea is absolute favorite.

There will not play in S`hampton: Bazunu G. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Bednarek J. (Knee Injury) Dibling T. (Yellow Cards) Downes F. (Yellow Cards) Harwood-Bellis T. (Yellow Cards) Lallana A. (Thigh Injury) Ramsdale A. (Finger Injury) Smallbone W. (Thigh Injury) Stewart R. (Thigh Injury) Ugochukwu L. (Loan agreement)

There will not play in Chelsea: Fofana W. (Muscle Injury) James R. (Thigh Injury) Kellyman O. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Onuachu P. (Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 22:40 (average 1.1:2).

Including matches at home between the teams S`hampton won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 8:23 (average 0.9:2.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English Premier League
29.11.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Southampton	1:1 ✺
24.11.24	Southampton - Liverpool	2:3 ✺
09.11.24	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Southampton	2:0 ✺
02.11.24	Southampton - Everton	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
29.10.24	Southampton - Stoke City	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TLLWW
- Chelsea
English Premier League
01.12.24	Chelsea - Aston Villa	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.11.24	Heidenheim - Chelsea	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
23.11.24	Leicester City - Chelsea	1:2 ✺
10.11.24	Chelsea - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.11.24	Chelsea - Noah Yerevan	8:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
18.02.23	Chelsea - Southampton	0:1
30.08.22	Southampton - Chelsea	2:1
09.04.22	Southampton - Chelsea	0:6
English League Cup
26.10.21	Chelsea - Southampton	2:1 penalties
English Premier League
02.10.21	Chelsea - Southampton	3:1
20.02.21	Southampton - Chelsea	1:1
17.10.20	Chelsea - Southampton	3:3

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