Match Info

LaLiga - Round 35

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid)

Referee: Galech I. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, Startimes Sports Life, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN
Azerbaijan	Idman TV
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Belarus 5
Bolivia	ESPN 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 3
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN 3
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
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India	FanCode, FanCode
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Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
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Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
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Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga 2, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	LaLiga TV, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 3, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 15, SCTV Online


	Atlético Madrid		Celta de Vigo

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.7	4	Watch
	1.9	3.7	3.95	Watch
	1.92	3.84	4.2
	1.93	3.94	3.87
	1.85	3.5	3.8
	1.98	3.8	4.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.86)	3.75 ↑ (3.61)	3.98 ↓ (4.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid
50.3%

Draw
25.6%

Celta de Vigo
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

26.2%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

22.3%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Celta de Vigo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Madrid that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.5%	15.7%	7.8%

Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Atlético will win (votes: 39 - 76.5%). Celta will win (votes: 4 - 7.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 15.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 64.9% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Oblak J. (G) 18. Pubill M. 2. Gimenez J. M. 17. Hancko D. 3. Ruggeri M. 14. Llorente M. 6. Koke (C) 10. Baena A. 22. Lookman A. 7. Griezmann A. 9. Sorloth A.	13. Radu I. (G) 32. Rodriguez J. 29. Lago Y. 20. Alonso M. 14. Nunez A. 8. Lopez F. 6. Moriba I. 3. Mingueza O. 18. Duran P. 19. Swedberg W. 7. Iglesias B. (C)
Substitutes
11. Almada T. 61. Cubo M. 34. Diaz J. 31. Esquivel S. (G) 15. Lenglet C. 24. Le Normand R. 37. Luque I. 4. Mendoza R. 16. Molina N. 47. Morcillo J. 1. Musso J. (G) 21. Vargas O.	4. Aidoo J. 23. Alvarez H. 36. Antanon A. 10. Aspas I. 5. Carreira S. 24. Dominguez C. 39. El Abdellaoui J. 12. Fernandez M. 9. Jutgla F. 21. Ristic M. 22. Sotelo H. 1. Villar I. (G)
Coaches
Simeone D.	Giraldez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Moriba I. 🟨,
20', Gimenez J. M. ↓, Le Normand R. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Griezmann A. ↓, Almada T. ↑,
60', Lookman A. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
62', 0 - 1, Iglesias B. ⚽, Swedberg W. (A),
66', Baena A. 🟨,
68', Iglesias B. ↓, Jutgla F. ↑,
68', Duran P. ↓, Aspas I. ↑,
68', Nunez A. ↓, Carreira S. ↑,
69', Baena A. ↓, Vargas O. ↑,
69', Le Normand R. ↓, Cubo M. ↑,
77', Lopez F. 🟨,
77', Swedberg W. ↓, Alvarez H. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 3.

Atlético has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Celta's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Atlético may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Atlético is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Atlético: Alvarez J. (Ankle Injury) Barrios P. (Muscle Injury) Cardoso J. (Contusion) Gonzalez N. (Muscle Injury) Simeone G. (Hip Injury)

There will not play in Celta: Roman M. (Foot Injury) Rueda J. (Yellow Cards) Starfelt C. (Back Injury) Vecino M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 14 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 36:11. (average 1.8:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:6. (average 2:0.6).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Atl. Madrid: 3.41% Celta Vigo: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	7	5	1	1	16:7	9	16
15	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8:6	2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid
UEFA Champions League
05.05.26	Arsenal - Atlético Madrid	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
02.05.26	Valencia - Atlético Madrid	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.04.26	Atlético Madrid - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
25.04.26	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	3:2 ✺
22.04.26	Elche - Atlético Madrid	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWTWL
- Celta de Vigo
Spanish LaLiga
03.05.26	Celta de Vigo - Elche	3:1 ✺
26.04.26	Villarreal - Celta de Vigo	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Barcelona - Celta de Vigo	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.04.26	Celta de Vigo - Freiburg	1:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
12.04.26	Celta de Vigo - Real Oviedo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
05.10.25	Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid	1:1
15.02.25	Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo	1:1
26.09.24	Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid	0:1
12.05.24	Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo	1:0
21.10.23	Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid	0:3
12.02.23	Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid	0:1
10.09.22	Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo	4:1

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