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Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 35
  • Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished
  • Location: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid) 🌤️ ...
  • Referee: Galech I. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Atlético Madrid Celta de Vigo
    Atlético Madrid Celta de Vigo
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.91 ↑
    (1.86)    		 3.75 ↑
    (3.61)    		 3.98 ↓
    (4.07)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

    • The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Atlético Madrid
    50.3%    		Draw
    25.6%    		Celta de Vigo
    24.1%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    50.6% 26.2% 23.2%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    48% 24.8% 27.2%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
  • Celta de Vigo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    76.5% 15.7% 7.8%

    Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Atlético will win (votes: 39 - 76.5%). Celta will win (votes: 4 - 7.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 15.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 64.9% – 88.1%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    13. SloveniaOblak J. (G)
    18. SpainPubill M.
      2. UruguayGimenez J. M.
    17. SlovakiaHancko D.
      3. ItalyRuggeri M.
    14. SpainLlorente M.
      6. SpainKoke (C)
    10. SpainBaena A.
    22. NigeriaLookman A.
      7. FranceGriezmann A.
      9. NorwaySorloth A.
    		13. RomaniaRadu I. (G)
    32. SpainRodriguez J.
    29. SpainLago Y.
    20. SpainAlonso M.
    14. SpainNunez A.
      8. SpainLopez F.
      6. GuineaMoriba I.
      3. SpainMingueza O.
    18. SpainDuran P.
    19. SwedenSwedberg W.
      7. SpainIglesias B. (C)
    Substitutes
    11. ArgentinaAlmada T.
    61. SpainCubo M.
    34. SpainDiaz J.
    31. SpainEsquivel S. (G)
    15. FranceLenglet C.
    24. SpainLe Normand R.
    37. SpainLuque I.
      4. SpainMendoza R.
    16. ArgentinaMolina N.
    47. SpainMorcillo J.
      1. ArgentinaMusso J. (G)
    21. MexicoVargas O.
    		  4. GhanaAidoo J.
    23. SpainAlvarez H.
    36. SpainAntanon A.
    10. SpainAspas I.
      5. SpainCarreira S.
    24. SpainDominguez C.
    39. MoroccoEl Abdellaoui J.
    12. SpainFernandez M.
      9. SpainJutgla F.
    21. SerbiaRistic M.
    22. SpainSotelo H.
      1. SpainVillar I. (G)
    Coaches
         ArgentinaSimeone D.
    		     SpainGiraldez C.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 19', Moriba I. 🟨,
    • 20', Gimenez J. M. ↓, Le Normand R. ↑,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
    • 60', Griezmann A. ↓, Almada T. ↑,
    • 60', Lookman A. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
    • 62', 0 - 1, Iglesias B. ⚽, Swedberg W. (A),
    • 66', Baena A. 🟨,
    • 68', Iglesias B. ↓, Jutgla F. ↑,
    • 68', Duran P. ↓, Aspas I. ↑,
    • 68', Nunez A. ↓, Carreira S. ↑,
    • 69', Baena A. ↓, Vargas O. ↑,
    • 69', Le Normand R. ↓, Cubo M. ↑,
    • 77', Lopez F. 🟨,
    • 77', Swedberg W. ↓, Alvarez H. ↑,

    Preview

  • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 3.
  • Atlético has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
  • Celta's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
  • Atlético may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • Atlético is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
  • There will not play in Atlético: Alvarez J. (Ankle Injury) Barrios P. (Muscle Injury) Cardoso J. (Contusion) Gonzalez N. (Muscle Injury) Simeone G. (Hip Injury)
  • There will not play in Celta: Roman M. (Foot Injury) Rueda J. (Yellow Cards) Starfelt C. (Back Injury) Vecino M. (Muscle Injury)
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 14 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 36:11. (average 1.8:0.6).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Atlético won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:6. (average 2:0.6).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    2Atl. Madrid1081120:81225
    9Celta Vigo1026210:7312

    Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Atl. Madrid: 6.42% Celta Vigo: 0.24%
    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Atlético Madrid
    UEFA Champions League
    05.05.26 Arsenal - Atlético Madrid 1:0 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    02.05.26 Valencia - Atlético Madrid 0:2 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    29.04.26 Atlético Madrid - Arsenal 1:1 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    25.04.26 Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 3:2 ✺
    22.04.26 Elche - Atlético Madrid 3:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7
    LWTWL
    - Celta de Vigo
    Spanish LaLiga
    03.05.26 Celta de Vigo - Elche 3:1 ✺
    26.04.26 Villarreal - Celta de Vigo 2:1 ✺
    22.04.26 Barcelona - Celta de Vigo 1:0 ✺
    UEFA Europa League
    16.04.26 Celta de Vigo - Freiburg 1:3 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    12.04.26 Celta de Vigo - Real Oviedo 0:3 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2
    WLLLL
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    05.10.25 Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid 1:1
    15.02.25 Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo 1:1
    26.09.24 Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid 0:1
    12.05.24 Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo 1:0
    21.10.23 Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid 0:3
    12.02.23 Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid 0:1
    10.09.22 Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo 4:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Atlético Madrid
    UEFA Champions League
    03.11.26 Atlético Madrid - Bayern Munich ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    31.10.26 Levante - Atlético Madrid ✺
    - Celta de Vigo
    UEFA Europa League
    05.11.26 Celta de Vigo - Saint-Gilloise ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    31.10.26 Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo ✺

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