Match Info

LaLiga - Round 6

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid)

Referee: Maeso F. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Belarus 5
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bolivia	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
China	Migu
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Disney+
France	DAZN France, Disney+
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	Disney+
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sports 2
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga, Supersport Maximo 1
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	S Sport
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Sport, SCTV 15, SCTV Online


	Atlético Madrid		Osasuna

	1	X	2
	1.30	5.50	10.00	Watch
	1.31	5.50	9.00
	1.33	5.10	9.50	Watch
	1.32	5.70	11.00
	1.4	5.14	8.34
	1.31	5.45	10.00
	1.31	5.55	10.10	Watch
	1.30	5.60	9.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.49)	5.44 ↑ (4.28)	9.62 ↑ (6.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid
72.4%

Draw
17.6%

Osasuna
10%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.3%

22.1%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66%

21.2%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Madrid's performance.

Osasuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Madrid that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.5%	11.5%	1.9%

Atlético Madrid - Osasuna Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Atlético (1.47) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.66) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (44 of 50 users predict this - 88%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.99% – 97.01%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Oblak J. (G) 14. Llorente M. 21. Romero C. 24. Le Normand R. 22. Grimaldo A. 7. Lee Kang-In 6. Koke (C) 5. Cardoso J. 10. Baena A. 15. David J. 11. Lookman A.	13. Fernandez A. (C) 27. Arguibide I. 48. Yeboah R. 22. Boyomo F. 35. Santos U. 23. Bretones A. 21. Dubasin J. 29. Osambela A. 6. Torro L. 18. Moro R. 9. Garcia R.
Substitutes
46. Castillo J. 27. Dominguez J. 25. Esquivel S. (G) 17. Hancko D. 23. Hjulmand M. 30. Martinez D. 4. Mendoza R. 1. Musso J. (G) 16. Ortiz A. 18. Pubill M. 20. Simeone G. 3. Vargas O.	11. Barja K. 30. Bonel A. 17. Budimir A. 24. Catena A. 20. Del Castillo R. 26. Echegoyen M. 14. Garcia R. 1. Herrera S. (G) 7. Moncayola J. 8. Munoz I. 31. Rafa (G) 15. Rico D.
Coaches
Simeone D.	Ramis L. M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, David J. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
50', Lookman A. 🟨,
54', 2 - 0, Lee Kang-In ⚽, David J. (A),
59', Dubasin J. ↓, Barja K. ↑,
59', Moro R. ↓, Garcia R. ↑,
60', Garcia R. ↓, Budimir A. ↑,
63', 3 - 0, Le Normand R. ⚽,
68', Romero C. ↓, Pubill M. ↑,
68', David J. ↓, Simeone G. ↑,
68', Lookman A. ↓, Ortiz A. ↑,
71', Arguibide I. ↓, Moncayola J. ↑,
75', Osambela A. ↓, Del Castillo R. ↑,
82', 4 - 0, Baena A. ⚽, Cardoso J. (A),
85', Cardoso J. ↓, Hjulmand M. ↑,
85', Grimaldo A. ↓, Hancko D. ↑,
86', Garcia R. 🟨,
90+3', Bretones A. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Atlético may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Atlético has had a series of away games.

In this match, Atlético is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Atlético: Barrios P. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Osasuna: Gomez M. (Hamstring Injury) Herrando J. (Muscle Injury) Oroz A. (Muscle Injury) Rosier V. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético: Alvarez J. (Muscle Injury) Esteban S. (Injury) Sorloth A. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 17 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 40:14. (average 2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:7. (average 1.9:0.7).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Atl. Madrid: 2.96% Osasuna: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	8	6	1	1	18:8	10	19
14	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6:13	-7	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
13.09.26	Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.09.26	Liverpool - Atlético Madrid	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
05.09.26	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	3:0 ✺
29.08.26	Sevilla - Atlético Madrid	1:3 ✺
23.08.26	Atlético Madrid - Villarreal	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLLWT
- Osasuna
Spanish LaLiga
12.09.26	Osasuna - Espanyol	0:2 ✺
06.09.26	Deportivo Alavés - Osasuna	5:2 ✺
31.08.26	Osasuna - Getafe	1:0 ✺
27.08.26	Celta de Vigo - Osasuna	1:2 ✺
24.08.26	Osasuna - Levante	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
12.05.26	Osasuna - Atlético Madrid	1:2
18.10.25	Atlético Madrid - Osasuna	1:0
15.05.25	Osasuna - Atlético Madrid	2:0
12.01.25	Atlético Madrid - Osasuna	1:0
19.05.24	Atlético Madrid - Osasuna	1:4
28.09.23	Osasuna - Atlético Madrid	0:2
21.05.23	Atlético Madrid - Osasuna	3:0

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