Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 23

Date: 17 August 2024, Saturday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: de Oliveira Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Belarus 5
Brazil	Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
Indonesia	Mola TV
Peru	L1 Play
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Sportbox.ru
Ukraine	Sport 2
World	Amazon Prime Video, Fanatiz, Sport 2 Baltic


	Atlético Mineiro		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.4	6.25	Watch
	1.68	3.4	5.75
	1.7	3.4	5.5
	1.71	3.53	6.13
	1.76	3.44	5.21	Watch
	1.55	3.75	5.8
	1.71	3.46	5.61	Watch
	1.7	3.4	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.64)	3.47 ↓ (3.73)	5.72 ↑ (5.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
56.2%

Draw
27.3%

Cuiabá
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.2%

25.2%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

23.8%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Cuiabá aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	12.5%	6.2%

Atlético Mineiro - Cuiabá Predictions

Users Predictions: Atlético Mineiro will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Everson (G) 25. Mariano 3. Bruno Fuchs 2. Lyanco 44. Rubens 23. Franco A. 18. Fausto Vera 17. Igor Gomes 20. Bernard (C) 30. Palacios Alzate B. 9. Deyverson	1. Walter (C) 2. Matheus Alexandre 34. Bruno Alves 4. Marllon 33. Alan Empereur 63. Juan Tavares 18. Lucas Fernandes 30. Lucas Mineiro 27. Denilson Alves 10. Max Alves 9. Pitta I.
Substitutes
45. Alisson 8. Alonso J. 42. Cadu 13. Guilherme Arana 6. Gustavo Scarpa 16. Igor Rabello 31. Matheus Mendes (G) 27. Monteiro P. 5. Otavio 10. Paulinho 26. Renzo Saravia 15. Zaracho M.	97. Andre Luis 25. Clayson 22. Derik Lacerda 11. Eliel 88. Fernando Sobral 5. Filipe Augusto 44. Gabriel 8. Guilherme Madruga 7. Jonathan Cafu 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 21. Railan 12. Rhyan (G)
Coaches
Milito G.	Petit

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Igor Gomes (Pen),
30', Lucas Mineiro 🟨,
43', Mariano 🟨,
43', Bruno Fuchs 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Pitta I. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mariano ↓, Renzo Saravia ↑,
50', Matheus Alexandre 🟨,
57', Max Alves ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
62', Bernard ↓, Paulinho ↑,
62', Palacios Alzate B. ↓, Alisson ↑,
62', Igor Gomes ↓, Cadu ↑,
72', Denilson Alves 🟨,
75', Pitta I. ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
75', Denilson Alves ↓, Derik Lacerda ↑,
75', Matheus Alexandre ↓, Railan ↑,
77', Deyverson ↓, Gustavo Scarpa ↑,
85', Bruno Alves 🟨,
90', Juan Tavares 🟨,
90+1', Franco A. 🟨,
90+2', Lucas Fernandes ↓, Filipe Augusto ↑,
90+9', Alan Empereur 🟨,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético MG won 4.

Recent matches Atlético MG is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Cuiabá has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Cuiabá could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Atlético MG have a series of guest games.

Recently Cuiabá have a series of home games.

In this match Atlético MG is a favorite.

There will not play in Atlético MG: Hulk (Suspended) Paulinho (Suspended)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Atlético MG won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 15-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético MG won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Copa Libertadores
13.08.24	San Lorenzo - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.08.24	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Atlético Mineiro - CRB Maceio	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.24	Criciúma - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
31.07.24	CRB Maceio - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TTWLT
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie A
10.08.24	Cuiabá - Grêmio	1:3 ✺
03.08.24	Vitória Salvador - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
28.07.24	Cuiabá - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.07.24	Cuiabá - Palestino	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
21.07.24	Cuiabá - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
27.04.24	Cuiabá - Atlético Mineiro	0:3
23.09.23	Atlético Mineiro - Cuiabá	1:0
10.05.23	Cuiabá - Atlético Mineiro	0:4
10.11.22	Atlético Mineiro - Cuiabá	3:0
21.07.22	Cuiabá - Atlético Mineiro	1:1
24.10.21	Atlético Mineiro - Cuiabá	2:1
04.07.21	Cuiabá - Atlético Mineiro	0:1

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