Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 August 2024, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Pedro Bidegain (Buenos Aires) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App
Argentina	21:30	Fox Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	10:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia And Herzegovina	02:30	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	21:30	Paramount+
Canada	20:30	beIN Connect, FuboTV
Chile	20:30	ESPN
Colombia	19:30	ESPN 3
Croatia	02:30	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Greece	03:30	COSMOTE Sport 8
Indonesia	07:30	Mola TV
Israel	03:30	Sport 3
Mexico	18:30	ESPN
New Zealand	12:30	beIN Connect
Nigeria	01:30	Sporty TV
North Central America	—	ESPN 5 Norte, ESPNPlay Caribbean
Peru	19:30	ESPN
Portugal	01:30	Sport TV1
Russia	03:30	Okko Sport
Serbia	02:30	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	02:30	Arena Sport 1
South America	—	ESPN South
Spain	02:30	beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol
Turkey	03:30	S Sport, S Sport+
Usa	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA, FuboTV
International	00:30	Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	San Lorenzo		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.8	2.6	Watch
	3.1	2.7	2.75
	3.1	2.75	2.65
	3.29	2.75	2.74
	3.19	2.73	2.7	Watch
	2.9	2.7	2.6	Watch
	3.22	2.75	2.73	Watch
	3.1	2.75	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↑ (2.51)	2.74 ↓ (3.14)	2.68 ↓ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Libertadores with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: fubo Sports Network

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Current Win Probability

San Lorenzo
30.2%

Draw
34.5%

Atlético Mineiro
35.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.6%

30.1%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

30.7%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Lorenzo's form might have worsened.

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Lorenzo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	57.1%	28.6%

San Lorenzo - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. San Lorenzo will win (votes: 3 - 15%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 6 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 55%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Altamirano F. (G) 30. Arias N. 5. Remedi E. 22. Campi G. 37. Baez E. 8. Reali M. 17. Irala E. 24. Tripichio N. 35. Lujan G. 28. Cuello A. 41. Leguizamon I.	22. Everson (G) 26. Renzo Saravia 21. Battaglia R. 8. Alonso J. 6. Gustavo Scarpa 5. Otavio 18. Fausto Vera 13. Guilherme Arana (C) 20. Bernard 9. Deyverson 10. Paulinho
Substitutes
31. Alassia G. 10. Barrios N. 29. Blanco S. 32. Bruera F. 77. Bustos N. 7. Cerutti E. 25. Gomez G. (G) 36. Herrera D. 46. Perez M. 20. Porra T. 40. Sosa S. 9. Vombergar A.	45. Alisson 3. Bruno Fuchs 42. Cadu 23. Franco A. 17. Igor Gomes 2. Lyanco 25. Mariano 31. Matheus Mendes (G) 27. Monteiro P. 30. Palacios Alzate B. 44. Rubens 15. Zaracho M.
Coaches
Romagnoli L.	Milito G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Cuello A. ⚽, Reali M. (A),
18', Cuello A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Remedi E. ↓, Sosa S. ↑,
56', Baez E. 🟨,
58', 1 - 1, Paulinho ⚽,
73', Leguizamon I. ↓, Barrios N. ↑,
74', Otavio ↓, Mariano ↑,
74', Deyverson ↓, Cadu ↑,
81', Reali M. ↓, Bustos N. ↑,
83', Bernard ↓, Zaracho M. ↑,
83', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Alisson ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Atlético MG could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches San Lorenzo won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Including matches at home between the teams San Lorenzo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Lorenzo
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.08.24	San Lorenzo - Atlético Tucumán	0:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
06.08.24	San Lorenzo - Vélez Sársfield	1:3 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.08.24	Independiente - San Lorenzo	0:0 ✺
27.07.24	San Lorenzo - Newells Old Boys	1:1 ✺
23.07.24	Gimnasia La Plata - San Lorenzo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LLTTW
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
10.08.24	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Atlético Mineiro - CRB Maceio	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.24	Criciúma - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
31.07.24	CRB Maceio - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.07.24	Atlético Mineiro - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
08.05.18	Atlético Mineiro - San Lorenzo	0:0
11.04.18	San Lorenzo - Atlético Mineiro	1:0

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