The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Atlético Morelia 61%
Draw 21.9%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 17.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
63.5%
20.8%
15.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
66.1%
20%
15.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Morelia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Morelia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alebrijes de Oaxaca than the current prediction. (-2%)
Atlético Morelia - Alebrijes de Oaxaca Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Pasquel Colin R. (G) 2. Lopez Aburto R. 6. De Buen D. 4. Zamora D. 16. Sandoval R. 20. Aguilar D. 8. Martinez J. (C) 19. Rodriguez M. 10. Dominguez M. 17. Nambo M. 9. del Campo R.
21. Paz Vasquez O. (G) 15. Villa P. 4. Alvarez K. (C) 12. Reyes J. 3. Justo A. 14. Vazquez Hernandez A. 19. Fadika B. 28. Jeffus L. 6. Arellano A. 22. Jaimes Rodriguez T. 11. Andrey Marcos
Substitutes
13. Andrade A. 21. Castellanos E. 14. Castellanos R. 28. Flores A. 1. Galan R. (G) 3. Hernandez S. 11. Lopez V. 26. Martinez J. 7. Romero P. 5. Van Rankin J.
20. Ayala D. 7. Ballesteros O. 8. Barreda I. 177. Bustos J. 26. Carreon M. 23. Hernandez A. 25. Martinez D. 1. Rodas C. (G) 27. Sanchez E. 33. Tecpanecatl A.
Coaches
Colace H.
Hernandez E.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, del Campo R. ⚽, Nambo M. (A),
27', 2 - 0, Rodriguez M. ⚽, del Campo R. (A),
32', Alvarez K. ↓, Martinez D. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Fadika B. ↓, Tecpanecatl A. ↑,
46', Andrey Marcos ↓, Barreda I. ↑,
46', Arellano A. ↓, Bustos J. ↑,
51', 2 - 1, Bustos J. (Penalty Awarded),
57', 3 - 1, Rodriguez M. ⚽, Dominguez M. (A),
60', Justo A. 🟨,
65', Nambo M. ↓, Lopez V. ↑,
66', Justo A. 🟨,
78', Rodriguez M. ↓, Romero P. ↑,
78', Dominguez M. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
78', del Campo R. ↓, Flores A. ↑,
78', Jaimes Rodriguez T. ↓, Carreon M. ↑,
78', 4 - 1, Flores A. ⚽, Aguilar D. (A),
87', Martinez J. ↓, Andrade A. ↑,
Preview
One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Morelia won 3.
Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Atlético Morelia is seen as the favorite.
In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Atlético Morelia won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 28:13. (average 2.2:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Morelia won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 2.3:1).
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Pasquel Colin R. (G) 
del Campo R. 
Fadika B. 
Jeffus L. 
Andrey Marcos 
Galan R. (G) 
Ballesteros O. 
Colace H. 
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