Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Morelos (Morelia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Atlético Morelia		Atlante

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.98	3.3	2.22
	3.03	3.58	2.27
	2.64	3.36	2.54	Watch
	3.08	3.48	2.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.27)	3.43 ↓ (3.44)	2.3 ↓ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Morelia
32%

Draw
27.3%

Atlante
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

27.1%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

27.6%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Morelia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Morelia's form might have worsened.

Atlante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlante's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Morelia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlante than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlante, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Atlético Morelia - Atlante Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Torres A. (G) 11. Figueroa B. 10. Figueroa F. 28. Flores A. 16. Garcia U. 7. Islas O. 32. Moreno G. 22. Parra D. 30. Sandoval L. 5. Torres D. (C) 24. Vazquez B.	29. Espinoza G. (G) 22. Calzadilla L. 6. Carrera J. N. 3. Cruz D. 27. Escobar A. 13. Garcia Pardo M. 19. Gonzalez S. 21. Ibarra J. (C) 34. Jimenez E. 5. Meza H. 2. Reyes F.
Substitutes
35. Anzar A. 9. del Campo R. 19. Gallegos D. 15. Gutierrez A. 8. Martinez J. 26. Martinez J. 85. Munoz G. J. (G) 29. Ochoa Brandon 20. Palma A. 31. Vivas J. F.	1. Barragan R. (G) 33. Basulto L. 31. Bello B. 15. Cantu E. 11. Coubert R. 7. Garcia M. 8. Gonzalez R. 17. Mejia L. 20. Tovar J. 9. Wlk A.
Coaches
Adame G.	Fuentes M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Sandoval L. 🟥,
45', Escobar A. 🟨,
45+5', Vazquez B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Escobar A. ↓, Bello B. ↑,
47', 0 - 1, Bello B. ⚽, Ibarra J. (A),
65', 0 - 2, Calzadilla L. ⚽, Cruz D. (A),
68', Islas O. ↓, del Campo R. ↑,
69', Cruz D. ↓, Tovar J. ↑,
69', Gonzalez S. ↓, Wlk A. ↑,
69', Calzadilla L. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
77', Carrera J. N. 🟨,
81', Moreno G. ↓, Palma A. ↑,
81', Figueroa B. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
81', Ibarra J. ↓, Mejia L. ↑,
82', del Campo R. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Morelia won 1.

Atlético Morelia has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlante is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Atlético Morelia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético Morelia won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 0.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Morelia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 0.6:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.09.25	Atlético La Paz - Atlético Morelia	3:0 ✺
13.09.25	Atlético Morelia - Dorados	2:1 ✺
04.09.25	Venados - Atlético Morelia	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Atlético Morelia - Mineros de Zacatecas	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Cancún - Atlético Morelia	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWTWL
- Atlante FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
20.09.25	Atlante - Leones Negros UdeG	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlante	0:3 ✺
06.09.25	Atlante - Correcaminos UAT	5:1 ✺
29.08.25	Tapatío - Atlante	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Atlante - Irapuato	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
26.04.25	Atlante - Atlético Morelia	2:3
23.04.25	Atlético Morelia - Atlante	0:0
25.01.25	Atlético Morelia - Atlante	0:2
11.08.24	Atlante - Atlético Morelia	3:1
24.03.24	Atlante - Atlético Morelia	0:0
15.10.23	Atlético Morelia - Atlante	0:1
26.02.23	Atlético Morelia - Atlante	0:1

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