Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Morelos (Morelia)

Referee: Lopez A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports
Usa	Aym Sports


	Atlético Morelia		Tlaxcala

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.47	4.20	5.00
	1.43	4.4	5.7	Watch
	1.51	4.6	6.03
	1.48	4.53	5.8	Watch
	1.45	4.5	5.9
	1.47	4.91	6	Watch
	1.43	4.4	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.49)	4.51 ↓ (4.55)	5.75 ↑ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Morelia
63.3%

Draw
20.6%

Tlaxcala
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.8%

20.5%

16.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.6%

19.6%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Tlaxcala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tlaxcala than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Atlético Morelia - Tlaxcala Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pasquel Colin R. (G) 2. Lopez Aburto R. 6. De Buen D. 4. Zamora D. 16. Sandoval R. 8. Martinez J. (C) 20. Aguilar D. 26. Martinez J. 10. Dominguez M. 17. Nambo M. 9. del Campo R.	22. Bedolla P. (G) 1. Govea I. (C) 29. Trejo Castro M. A. 25. Flores B. 3. Santos E. 6. Iniestra A. 23. Gonzalez P. 16. Ramirez M. 24. Robles E. 12. Freyfeld J. 9. Christian
Substitutes
13. Andrade A. 21. Castellanos E. 14. Castellanos R. 28. Flores A. 1. Galan R. (G) 3. Hernandez S. 32. Izarra A. 11. Lopez V. 7. Romero P. 5. Van Rankin J.	11. Alvarez D. 19. Camacho Lastra R. E. 2. Gonzalez C. 28. Hernandez D. 7. Hernandez E. 31. Hernandez R. 30. Nuno A. (G) 8. Plascencia F.
Coaches
Colace H.	Ortega A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Zamora D. ⚽, Aguilar D. (A),
9', Freyfeld J. 🟨,
30', Ramirez M. 🟨,
39', Flores B. 🟨,
41', Gonzalez P. 🟥,
45+1', Martinez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Zamora D. 🟨,
54', Aguilar D. 🟨,
59', Nambo M. ↓, Flores A. ↑,
66', Trejo Castro M. A. 🟨,
69', Martinez J. ↓, Castellanos E. ↑,
70', Dominguez M. ↓, Lopez V. ↑,
70', Iniestra A. ↓, Gonzalez C. ↑,
70', Christian ↓, Alvarez D. ↑,
80', Flores B. ↓, Hernandez E. ↑,
80', Govea I. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Robles E. (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', Aguilar D. ↓, Andrade A. ↑,
90+3', Zamora D. ↓, Romero P. ↑,

Preview

The table topper faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 1st in the Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals) and 12th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Morelia won 3.

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

The betting markets point to Atlético Morelia as the clear and undisputed favorite.

Our forecast points to a victory for Atlético Morelia in today's match, at odds of 1.44.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Atlético Morelia has recorded 9 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:10 (averaging 1.9:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Atlético Morelia against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 14:5 goals (averaging 2:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Morelia	11	7	1	3	21:12	9	22
12	Tlaxcala	11	3	3	5	19:23	-4	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
26.09.26	Venados - Atlético Morelia	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Atlético Morelia - Leones Negros UdeG	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Atlético Morelia - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:1 ✺
28.08.26	Dorados - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWWWW
- Tlaxcala FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
26.09.26	Tlaxcala - Cancún	4:1 ✺
20.09.26	Tapatío - Tlaxcala	4:0 ✺
12.09.26	Tlaxcala - Jaiba Brava	3:1 ✺
04.09.26	Alacranes de Durango - Tlaxcala	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Tlaxcala - Venados	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
11.04.26	Atlético Morelia - Tlaxcala	0:0
01.11.25	Tlaxcala - Atlético Morelia	0:1
19.04.25	Tlaxcala - Atlético Morelia	1:1
31.10.24	Atlético Morelia - Tlaxcala	2:1
08.02.24	Atlético Morelia - Tlaxcala	3:1
20.09.23	Tlaxcala - Atlético Morelia	2:3
06.01.23	Tlaxcala - Atlético Morelia	0:0

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