Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)


	Atlético Nacional		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.70	2.70
	2.15	3.6	2.75
	2.2	3.7	2.5
	2.17	4.05	2.76
				Watch
	2.17	3.8	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (1.96)	3.77 ↓ (4.1)	2.67 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Nacional
42%

Draw
24.1%

Chapecoense
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

22.2%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

21.2%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Atlético Nacional - Chapecoense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Marquinez L. (G) 33. Benitez 20. Casco M. 4. Haydar C. 35. Lozano M. 30. Parra Atehortua K. 36. Perez K. C. 27. Perlaza Perea Y. A. 31. Rios X. 24. Rosa J. 80. Zapata J.	98. Anderson (G) 16. Bruno Matias 80. Carvalho M. 19. David Antunes 23. Dudu Marques 12. Fernando 4. Joao Paulo 21. Kauan 31. Mauricio Garcez 9. Tulio 88. Yago Felipe (C)
Substitutes
13. Ibarra 26. Marin F. 3. Parra N. 18. Perez 5. Quessada 14. Rivero E. 19. Snoop 28. Tobon 44. Zea E. (G)	3. Eduardo Doma 14. Gabriel Werner (G) 44. Luciano 6. Mancha 94. Ramirez K. 39. Rodrigo 55. Rosivan 70. Rubens Ricoldi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Yago Felipe ⚽,
23', 1 - 1, Benitez ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', 🟨,

Preview

Atlético Nacional has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Chapecoense has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Atlético Nacional may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Atlético Nacional holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Atlético Nacional has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 5:3 (averaging 1.7:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Atlético Nacional against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 4:1 goals (averaging 2:0.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Nacional - the odds 1.96 are the expected chance of winning is 46.43%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Chapecoense - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 31.38%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
24.09.26	Atlético Nacional - Millonarios	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Llaneros SA - Atlético Nacional	2:0 ✺
16.09.26	Inter Bogotá - Atlético Nacional	2:3 ✺
13.09.26	Atlético Nacional - Rionegro Águilas	2:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
07.09.26	Atlético Nacional - Deportivo Cali	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLWWW
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie A
19.09.26	Atlético Mineiro - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Chapecoense - Internacional RS	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Corinthians - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Grêmio - Chapecoense	3:1 ✺
23.08.26	Chapecoense - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.5 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Recopa Sudamericana
10.05.17	Atlético Nacional - Chapecoense	4:1
04.04.17	Chapecoense - Atlético Nacional	2:1
Copa Sudamericana
30.11.16	Atlético Nacional - Chapecoense	Chapecoense-SC (Bra) awarded

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