Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 12 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Ortega C. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz


	Atlético Nacional		Fortaleza CEIF

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.5	8	Watch
	1.37	4.45	8.3	Watch
	1.36	4.75	9.86
	1.33	4.8	9.58
	1.33	4.33	9
	1.33	4.6	9.6	Watch
	1.36	4.75	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.37)	4.6 ↑ (4.44)	8.91 ↑ (7.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Nacional
69.2%

Draw
20.3%

Fortaleza CEIF
10.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.6%

20.8%

11.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Fortaleza CEIF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Atlético Nacional - Fortaleza CEIF Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Atlético Nacional will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
15. Castillo H. (G) 6. Roman A. 28. Garcia S. 4. Haydar C. 20. Casco M. 80. Zapata J. 8. Uribe M. (C) 13. Rodriguez N. 19. Rengifo J. 29. Sarmiento A. 9. Morelos A.	1. Silva M. (G) 16. Cajares J. 6. Diaz Y. 18. Balanta J. 15. Cuero S. 14. Pico L. (C) 8. Navarro S. 17. Balanta Carabali K. A. 11. Amaya A. 26. Rivas Torres R. D. 33. Arroyo A.
Substitutes
27. Asprilla D. 30. Bauza J. 21. Campuzano J. 10. Cardona E. 44. Catano K. (G) 7. Moreno M. 24. Rosa J. 16. Tesillo W. 5. Uribe C.	7. Martinez J. 5. Medina Obando J. 20. Orozco C. 22. Palacios S. 3. Ramirez D. 12. Santander C. (G) 23. Sinisterra J. 10. Velasquez J. 29. Wilke T.
Coaches
Arias D.	Oliveros S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Balanta Carabali K. A. 🟨,
26', Morelos A. (Penalty Awarded),
30', Zapata J. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Morelos A. ⚽, Casco M. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Rivas Torres R. D. ↓, Wilke T. ↑,
49', Wilke T. 🟨,
53', 2 - 0, Casco M. ⚽, Sarmiento A. (A),
54', 2 - 1, Amaya A. ⚽, Navarro S. (A),
58', 3 - 1, Morelos A. (Penalty Awarded),
59', Morelos A. 🟨,
67', Zapata J. ↓, Campuzano J. ↑,
67', Sarmiento A. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
67', Amaya A. ↓, Velasquez J. ↑,
70', Wilke T. 🟨,
72', Uribe M. ↓, Cardona E. ↑,
73', Morelos A. ↓, Asprilla D. ↑,
75', 4 - 1, Moreno M. ⚽,
76', Balanta Carabali K. A. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
76', Navarro S. ↓, Sinisterra J. ↑,
78', Rodriguez N. ↓, Rosa J. ↑,
84', Arroyo A. ↓, Orozco C. ↑,

Preview

Atlético Nacional is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fortaleza's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Atlético Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Atlético Nacional has had a series of home games.

In this match, Atlético Nacional is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Atlético Nacional won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 2.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Nacional won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Atl. Nacional	11	7	2	2	21:10	11	23
16	Fortaleza	13	1	8	4	14:19	-5	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
04.02.26	Atlético Nacional - América de Cali	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
31.01.26	Atlético Nacional - Inter Miami	1:2 ✺
Colombian Primera A
17.01.26	Atlético Nacional - Boyacá Chicó	4:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
17.12.25	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLWWT
- Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Primera A
07.02.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Fortaleza CEIF	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Llaneros SA	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Deportivo Pereira - Fortaleza CEIF	0:0 ✺
16.01.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Alianza Valledupar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
16.08.25	Atlético Nacional - Fortaleza CEIF	2:2
04.03.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Atlético Nacional	1:5
27.10.24	Fortaleza CEIF - Atlético Nacional	0:1
05.04.24	Atlético Nacional - Fortaleza CEIF	1:2

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