Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional, ViX Latin America
Usa	Fanatiz


	Atlético Nacional		Unión Magdalena

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	9	Watch
	1.33	4.75	8
	1.25	5.8	12
	1.25	5.44	12.29
	1.35	4.6	8.5
	1.34	5.07	9.5	Watch
	1.25	5.8	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.41)	5.21 ↑ (4.1)	10.18 ↑ (8.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Nacional
72.6%

Draw
18.1%

Unión Magdalena
9.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.7%

22.9%

10.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70%

21.8%

9.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Nacional's performance.

Unión Magdalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Atlético Nacional - Unión Magdalena Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Nacional (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atlético Nacional will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ospina D. (G) 20. Castro J. 23. Arias J. J. 16. Tesillo W. 17. Salazar A. 11. Arce B. 21. Campuzano J. 18. Hinestroza M. 10. Cardona E. 27. Asprilla D. 19. Viveros K.	1. Restrepo E. (G) 30. Mosquera D. 2. Perez R. (C) 33. Vanegas Zuniga O. L. 4. Murillo D. 20. Giraldo J. 16. Sencion Rodriguez C. E. 10. Sarmiento J. 11. Aragon O. 17. Blanco R. 21. Marquez R.
Substitutes
13. Candido C. 15. Castillo H. (G) 28. Garcia S. 7. Gil Mosquera F. A. 30. Parra Atehortua K. 29. Sarmiento A. 5. Toscano Bassa K. D.	22. Barreto O. 34. Gomez Tovar G. E. (G) 28. Mercado J. 18. Molina F. 6. Ortiz D. 8. Sanchez V. 26. Tello J.
Coaches
Gandolfi J.	Garcia A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Arias J. J. 🟨,
34', Vanegas Zuniga O. L. 🟨,
34', 🟨,
45', Campuzano J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Arias J. J. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
46', Cardona E. ↓, Toscano Bassa K. D. ↑,
46', Hinestroza M. ↓, Sarmiento A. ↑,
66', Aragon O. ↓, Mercado J. ↑,
66', Arce B. ↓, Gil Mosquera F. A. ↑,
72', Salazar A. ↓, Candido C. ↑,
74', Marquez R. ↓, Tello J. ↑,
74', Giraldo J. ↓, Barreto O. ↑,
77', Barreto O. 🟨,
80', Sencion Rodriguez C. E. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 0, Asprilla D. ⚽, Castro J. (A),

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 19).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético Nacional won 3.

Recent matches Atlético Nacional is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Unión Magdalena is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Atlético Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Atlético Nacional is certain favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Atlético Nacional won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:6 (average 1.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético Nacional won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:1 (average 2:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Copa Libertadores
02.04.25	Atlético Nacional - Nacional Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
28.03.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Atlético Nacional	2:0 ✺
23.03.25	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
19.03.25	Atlético Nacional - Deportes Tolima	4:3 ✺
15.03.25	Envigado - Atlético Nacional	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLTWT
- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera A
30.03.25	Unión Magdalena - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1 ✺
26.03.25	Junior Barranquilla - Unión Magdalena	2:1 ✺
16.03.25	Unión Magdalena - Boyacá Chicó	1:1 ✺
08.03.25	Alianza Valledupar - Unión Magdalena	1:0 ✺
03.03.25	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo Cali	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
07.10.23	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Nacional	2:1
26.04.23	Atlético Nacional - Unión Magdalena	2:0
21.08.22	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Nacional	2:2
19.02.22	Atlético Nacional - Unión Magdalena	1:0
18.08.19	Atlético Nacional - Unión Magdalena	3:1
24.02.19	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Nacional	1:0

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