Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 28

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Palmar (Sanlúcar de Barrameda)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Atlético Sanluqueño		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	3.1	3	2.2
	3.2	3	2.05
	3.3	3.1	2.2
	3.42	3.05	2.19
	3.34	3.08	2.15	Watch
	3.33	3.15	2.15
	3.3	3.1	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↑ (2.68)	3.07 ↓ (3.17)	2.16 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Sanluqueño
27.9%

Draw
29.8%

Ceuta
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

28.9%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

27.6%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Sanluqueño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Sanluqueño's form might have worsened.

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ceuta's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Sanluqueño than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Atlético Sanluqueño - Ceuta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perez S. (G) 18. Kikin 20. Amoah I. 24. Riera R. 3. Martinez A. 11. Guti A. 14. El Arbaoui Y. 30. Bouare G. 10. Vacas L. 8. Carbonell P. 23. Soonsup-Bell J.	13. Vallejo G. (G) 7. Ahmed A. 4. Caparros A. 25. Cantero Y. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 19. Jamelli 8. Zalazar K. 3. Youness 10. Rodriguez C. 22. Kone K. 11. Aquino D.
Substitutes
16. Cabrera J. 12. Castellano A. 7. Colau 27. Csanad G. 15. Cuevas A. 2. Garcia A. 13. Garcia-Alejo R. (G) 26. Garcia D. 17. Pavon A. 5. Puerto A. 29. Reygadas M. 28. Tega Udoh O. 9. Vazquez B.	28. Aniekan B. 5. Bellotti M. 20. Escudero A. 15. Guzman J. 12. Heredia J. P. A. 21. Lopez J. 1. Lopez P. (G) 30. Montano A. 9. Rodri 32. Rodriguez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Bouare G. 🟨,
44', Riera R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Soonsup-Bell J. ↓, Vazquez B. ↑,
63', Carbonell P. ↓, Garcia D. ↑,
73', Rodriguez C. ↓, Rodri ↑,
75', Vacas L. ↓, Cuevas A. ↑,
75', Guti A. ↓, Colau ↑,
79', Bouare G. ↓, Puerto A. ↑,
85', Aquino D. ↓, Escudero A. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Sanluqueño is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ceuta is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ceuta could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Ceuta will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Sanluqueño won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:6 (average 1:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Sanluqueño won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Sanluqueño
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
08.03.25	Mérida AD - Atlético Sanluqueño	3:2 ✺
01.03.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Marbella	1:1 ✺
23.02.25	Ibiza - Atlético Sanluqueño	4:2 ✺
16.02.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Atlético Madrid B	1:0 ✺
09.02.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Atlético Sanluqueño	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTLWL
- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
09.03.25	Ceuta - Antequera	2:2 ✺
02.03.25	Villarreal B - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
22.02.25	Ceuta - Betis B	5:1 ✺
14.02.25	Alcorcón - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Ceuta - Algeciras	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
15.09.24	Ceuta - Atlético Sanluqueño	2:2
17.03.24	Ceuta - Atlético Sanluqueño	3:0
25.11.23	Atlético Sanluqueño - Ceuta	1:1

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