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Current Win Probability
New York City 50.1%
Draw 24.4%
New York Red Bulls 25.5%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
50.6%
22.7%
26.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
42.5%
19%
31.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
New York City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)
New York Red Bulls has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York City than the current prediction. (-7.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with New York City that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for New York Red Bulls than the current prediction. (+6.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that New York Red Bulls could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
72.7%
27.3%
0%
New York City - New York Red Bulls Predictions
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. NY City will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for NY City: 46.4% – 99%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
49. Freese M. (G) 24. Gray T. 13. Thiago Martins (C) 6. Sands J. 2. Cavallo N. 21. O'Neill A. 8. Perea A. 26. Ojeda A. 7. Mercau N. 17. Wolf H. 20. Luighi
34. Horvath E. (G) 12. Nealis D. (C) 26. Parker T. 14. Bazan J. 56. Dos Santos M. 48. Donkor R. 15. Mehmeti A. 37. Sofo M. 17. Harper C. 16. Hall J. 7. Cowell C.
Substitutes
35. Ilenic M. 88. Jones M. 16. Martinez A. 23. Murray M. 22. O'Toole K. 34. Raul Gustavo 30. Romero T. (G) 32. Shore J. 9. Traore B.
13. Choupo-Moting E. M. 10. Forsberg E. 60. Kone S. 77. McCarthy J. (G) 92. Nelich D. 59. Padelford D. 8. Ruiz D. 11. Ruvalcaba J. 6. Voloder R.
Coaches
Jansen P.
Bradley M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Mehmeti A. 🟨,
22', Cowell C. 🟨,
30', Cavallo N. 🟨,
40', Sofo M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', O'Neill A. 🟨,
57', 0 - 1, Hall J. ⚽,
62', Dos Santos M. ↓, Padelford D. ↑,
62', Wolf H. ↓, Traore B. ↑,
62', Luighi ↓, Martinez A. ↑,
75', Ojeda A. ↓, Jones M. ↑,
84', Cowell C. ↓, Ruvalcaba J. ↑,
84', Mehmeti A. ↓, Ruiz D. ↑,
84', Hall J. ↓, Choupo-Moting E. M. ↑,
Preview
Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 8th in the Promotion ~ MLS Playoffs1/16~finals) and 10th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NY City won 3.
The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.
In this matchup, NY City is considered the favorite to take the win.
Confirmed absences for NY City: Baiera D.
(Knee Injury)
Farnos A.
(Injury)
Moralez M.
(Knee Injury)
Parks K.
(Injury)
Talles Magno
(Muscle Injury)
Trewin K.
(Ankle Injury).
Confirmed absences for NY Red Bulls: Marcucci A.
(Knee Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for NY Red Bulls: Benedetti N.
(Injury)
Che J.
(Ankle Injury)
Marshall-Rutty J.
(Injury).
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, NY City has recorded 9 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 28:22 (averaging 1.4:1.1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for NY City against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 13:7 goals (averaging 1.6:0.9 per game).
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Freese M. (G) 
Gray T. 
Thiago Martins (C) 
O'Neill A. 
Ojeda A. 
Wolf H. 
Bazan J. 
Donkor R. 
Ilenic M. 
Jones M. 
Martinez A. 
O'Toole K. 
Romero T. (G) 
Traore B. 
Choupo-Moting E. M. 
Forsberg E. 
Kone S. 
Ruiz D. 
Ruvalcaba J. 
Voloder R. 
Jansen P. 
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