Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Banorte (Mexico City) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Santander Aguirre L. E. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Mexico	21:00	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Disney+, ESPN
South America	—	ViX Latin America


	Atlante		UNAM

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.50	2.57
	2.60	3.40	2.50
	2.55	3.35	2.50
	2.64	3.57	2.71
	2.75	3.46	2.5	Watch
	2.55	3.50	2.65
	2.76	3.53	2.53	Watch
	2.60	3.45	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↑ (2.48)	3.47 ↑ (3.35)	2.56 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlante
35.9%

Draw
27.2%

UNAM
36.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.1%

27.5%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

27.2%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

UNAM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlante than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Atlante - UNAM Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Atlante will win (votes: 2 - 50%). UNAM will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jimenez O. (C) 29. Portales W. 6. Carrera J. N. 4. Tercero E. 44. Quiros A. 34. Jimenez E. 30. Martin Sarrafiore 8. Pizzuto E. 19. Calzadilla L. 9. Puente L. 7. Jhojan Julio	1. Navas K. (C) 7. Lopez R. 2. Bennevendo P. 6. Nathan Silva 5. Duarte R. 21. Antuna U. 22. Medina A. 8. Carrasquilla A. 45. Vite P. 23. Juninho 31. Morales R.
Substitutes
32. Bagui Tobar D. O. 22. Barragan R. (G) 18. Bermudez C. 15. Charcopa J. 37. Clar W. 25. Fernandez M. 16. Gonzalez D. 11. Moxica J. 3. Sanchez L. 10. Vazquez O.	77. Angulo A. 18. Arteaga V. 34. Azuaje A. 202. Dominguez J. 14. Herrera L. 35. Lara P. (G) 24. Leone T. 30. Lopez S. 15. Luna I. 19. Rivas J.
Coaches
Herrera M.	Solari E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
34', Herrera M. 🟨,
34', Herrera M. 🟥,
42', 0 - 1, Juninho ⚽, Morales R. (A),
45+1', 1 - 1, Calzadilla L. ⚽, Jimenez E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Quiros A. 🟨,
63', Medina A. ↓, Arteaga V. ↑,
70', Bennevendo P. 🟨,
71', Jimenez E. ↓, Bagui Tobar D. O. ↑,
72', 1 - 2, Juninho ⚽, Carrasquilla A. (A),
76', Quiros A. ↓, Bermudez C. ↑,
85', Juninho ↓, Angulo A. ↑,
86', Pizzuto E. ↓, Moxica J. ↑,
86', Tercero E. ↓, Charcopa J. ↑,
90+2', Portales W. 🟨,
90+5', Antuna U. ↓, Lopez S. ↑,

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 16th and 12th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlante won 0.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Atlante: Meza H. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for UNAM: Calderon C. (Injury) Cordova S. (Knee Injury) Huerta Valera C. S. (Red Card) Macias J. (Knee Injury).

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Atlante has recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:19 (averaging 1:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Atlante against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with 6:9 goals (averaging 1:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	UNAM Pumas	14	4	5	5	20:23	-3	17
16	Atlante	14	3	5	6	14:20	-6	14

Outrights of Mexican Liga MX for now

UNAM Pumas: 2.36% Atlante: 0.61%

Last Results with these Odds

UNAM - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.4%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlante FC
Mexican Liga MX
10.10.26	Querétaro - Atlante	2:0 ✺
25.09.26	Atlante - Monterrey	4:2 ✺
18.09.26	Puebla - Atlante	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Atlante - Pachuca	0:3 ✺
05.09.26	Atlas - Atlante	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 LWTLT
- UNAM Pumas
Mexican Liga MX
11.10.26	UNAM - Cruz Azul	3:3 ✺
27.09.26	UNAM - Atlético San Luis	2:3 ✺
19.09.26	Atlas - UNAM	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Chivas Guadalajara - UNAM	3:0 ✺
10.09.26	UNAM - Club León	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
04.01.25	Atlante - UNAM	0:1
Copa Mexico
05.08.14	Atlante - UNAM	2:3
30.07.14	UNAM - Atlante	1:1
Mexican Liga MX
16.03.14	UNAM - Atlante	5:0
Copa Mexico
13.03.14	UNAM - Atlante	1:1
25.02.14	Atlante - UNAM	1:1
Mexican Liga MX
21.09.13	Atlante - UNAM	1:0

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