Match Info

URUGUAY: Primera Division - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 2 June 2024, Sunday

Location: Parque Capurro (Montevideo)

Referee: Feres J. (Uru)


	Atletico Fenix Montevideo		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	6	3.6	1.6	Watch
	5.25	3.6	1.58
	5.5	3.6	1.62
	5.98	3.77	1.63
	5.98	3.77	1.64
	5.5	3.6	1.55
	5.46	4.05	1.5	Watch
	5.8	3.55	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.68 ↑ (5.38)	3.69 ↑ (3.68)	1.59 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atletico Fenix Montevideo
16.4%

Draw
25.2%

Peñarol de Montevideo
58.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.5%

25.6%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.9%

24.8%

58.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atletico Fenix Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atletico Fenix Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	11.1%	88.9%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Peñarol de Montevideo will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Requena A. (G) 15. Chopitea R. 13. Pereira G. 4. Perg M. 24. Alvez J. (C) 28. Rodriguez F. 7. Fernandez W. 18. Caceres S. 27. Cachi M. 31. Dudu 19. Juambeltz M.	29. Aguerre W. (G) 18. Mayada C. 23. Mendez J. 2. Leo Coelho 15. Olivera M. (C) 14. Garcia D. 25. Sosa I. 7. Cabrera J. 19. Sosa D. 8. Fernandez L. 11. Silvera M.
Substitutes
29. Acuna M. 22. Bertocchi N. 8. Breno Caetano 9. Da Silva S. 44. De Leon F. 26. de Marco S. 20. Franca S. 3. Queiroz F. 57. Queiroz N. 1. Soria A. (G)	31. Benitez S. 6. Castillo Segura B. D. 5. Cristoforo S. 20. de Armas N. 3. Gianoli M. 9. Gonzalez F. 34. Herrera N. 22. Matheus Babi 1. Morgan Michelena K. M. (G) 16. Olase T.
Coaches
Vigneri N.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sosa I. ↓, Cristoforo S. ↑,
46', Sosa D. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
52', 0 - 1, Garcia D. ⚽,
62', Caceres S. ↓, De Leon F. ↑,
68', Cabrera J. ↓, Castillo Segura B. D. ↑,
72', Silvera M. ↓, Matheus Babi ↑,
79', Dudu ↓, de Marco S. ↑,
79', Perg M. ↓, Acuna M. ↑,
84', Garcia D. ↓, Olase T. ↑,
86', Castillo Segura B. D. 🟨,
86', Rodriguez F. 🟨,
87', Juambeltz M. ↓, Da Silva S. ↑,
87', Cachi M. ↓, Queiroz N. ↑,
90+2', Olivera M. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fenix won 2.

Recent matches Fenix is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Peñarol in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Fenix could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Peñarol have a series of home games.

In this match Peñarol is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Fenix won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 11-27.

Including matches at home between the teams Fenix won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.05.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:1 ✺
18.05.24	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Progreso	1:0 ✺
10.05.24	Nacional Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:4 ✺
05.05.24	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:2 ✺
29.04.24	Racing Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.7 WWWLL
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Copa Libertadores
28.05.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Rosario Central	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.05.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Progreso	3:1 ✺
18.05.24	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.05.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.05.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
28.11.23	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1
28.04.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:0
01.08.22	Peñarol de Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:1
10.07.22	Peñarol de Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:0
05.02.22	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0
17.09.21	Peñarol de Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:0
22.05.21	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0

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