Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 28 May 2024, Tuesday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN 3
Germany	Sport 1+
Netherlands	ESPN


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Rosario Central

	1	X	2
	2	3.25	4	Watch
	2	3.2	3.8
	2.05	3.2	3.75	Watch
	2.06	3.17	4.21
	2.06	3.17	4.21
	1.95	3.1	3.75	Watch
	2.05	3.22	4.1	Watch
	1.96	3.2	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.19)	3.19 ↑ (3.04)	3.97 ↑ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
46.7%

Draw
29.5%

Rosario Central
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

30.8%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

29.7%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Rosario Central has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rosario Central than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	11.1%	11.1%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Rosario Central Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 20 - 76.9%). Rosario will win (votes: 3 - 11.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Peñarol: 60.7% – 93.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 20. Milans P. 4. Rodriguez G. 23. Mendez J. 15. Olivera M. 14. Garcia D. 10. Ramirez G. (C) 26. Sequeira L. 8. Fernandez L. 13. Darias E. 11. Silvera M.	1. Broun J. (C) 4. Martinez D. 2. Quintana C. 15. Mallo Blanco F. 21. Rodriguez Armoa A. F. 45. Ortiz K. 8. Ibarra F. 7. Lovera M. 10. Malcorra I. 13. Campaz J. 44. Modica A.
Substitutes
33. Acosta N. 7. Cabrera J. 5. Cristoforo S. 30. Gonzalez A. 9. Gonzalez F. 2. Leo Coelho 27. Lucas Hernandez 22. Matheus Babi 18. Mayada C. 1. Rodriguez R. (G) 19. Sosa D. 25. Sosa I.	48. Cervera T. 33. Coronel E. 29. Dupuy L. 17. Giaccone L. 24. Gimenez J. 60. Gomez J. 6. Komar J. 18. Lo Celso F. 16. Martinez M. 30. O'Connor T. 39. Oviedo F. 20. Werner A. (G)
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Russo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Ramirez G. 🟨,
27', Mendez J. 🟨,
30', Ibarra F. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Fernandez L. ⚽, Milans P. (A),
39', Fernandez L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ramirez G. ↓, Cabrera J. ↑,
58', Milans P. ↓, Mayada C. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Modica A. ⚽,
70', Sequeira L. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
72', Ortiz K. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
77', Darias E. 🟨,
77', Darias E. ↓, Sosa I. ↑,
83', Campaz J. ↓, Dupuy L. ↑,
83', Malcorra I. ↓, Giaccone L. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Fernandez L. ⚽, Cabrera J. (A),
88', Aguerre W. 🟨,
89', Quintana C. 🟨,
90+2', Modica A. 🟨,

Preview

Peñarol in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Rosario is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Peñarol will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Peñarol won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.05.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Progreso	3:1 ✺
18.05.24	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.05.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.05.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.24	Caracas - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWWW
- Rosario Central
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.05.24	Deportivo Riestra - Rosario Central	0:2 ✺
20.05.24	Rosario Central - Tigre	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.05.24	Rosario Central - Caracas	4:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.05.24	Argentinos Juniors - Rosario Central	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.24	Rosario Central - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
04.04.24	Rosario Central - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0

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