Match Info

URUGUAY: Primera Division - Torneo Intermedio - Round 5

Date: 14 July 2024, Sunday

Location: Parque Capurro (Montevideo)

Referee: Heras H. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	Viju+ Sport
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Turkey	GOL TV Play, GOL TV Play
Usa	FuboTV
World	Fanatiz


	Atletico Fenix Montevideo		Defensor Sporting

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.1	2.2	Watch
	3.2	3.2	2.1
	3.2	3.2	2.2
	3.46	3.15	2.31
	3.37	3.11	2.24	Watch
	3.25	3.1	2.15
	3.3	3.19	2.21	Watch
	3.25	3.1	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↓ (3.45)	3.14 ↓ (3.18)	2.2 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atletico Fenix Montevideo
28.3%

Draw
29.5%

Defensor Sporting
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.1%

29.4%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.6%

28.9%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atletico Fenix Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Defensor Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atletico Fenix Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	22.2%	77.8%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Defensor Sporting Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Defensor Sporting will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Defensor Sporting: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Marquez E. (G) 4. Perg M. 13. Pereira G. 24. Alvez J. (C) 15. Chopitea R. 16. Guisolfo B. 7. Fernandez W. 20. Franca S. 27. Cachi M. 19. Juambeltz M. 31. Dudu	12. Dawson K. (G) 3. De los Santos G. 14. Giampaoli R. 16. Alvarez J. 18. Soria A. 5. Bernal F. 17. Barrios F. 8. Elizari F. 21. Valiente J. 10. Duarte A. 13. Cambon A.
Substitutes
29. Acuna M. 23. Argacha A. 8. Breno Caetano 9. Da Silva S. 40. De Leon F. 26. de Marco S. 11. Estoyanoff F. 33. Requena A. (G) 5. Schetino A. 54. Scotto S.	11. Agazzi L. 22. Barco A. 4. Cabrera R. 30. Cuello E. 29. Dudok R. 1. Dufour M. (G) . Jorge J. 15. Viacava J. 19. Viudez P. 26. Wunsch N.
Coaches
Vigneri N.	Navarro A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Duarte A. ⚽,
25', Dudu ↓, de Marco S. ↑,
26', Barrios F. 🟨,
35', Cachi M. 🟨,
45', 0 - 2, Alvarez J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Franca S. ↓, Da Silva S. ↑,
47', Giampaoli R. 🟨,
51', Barrios F. ↓, Viacava J. ↑,
57', Valiente J. 🟨,
60', Fernandez W. ↓, De Leon F. ↑,
60', Juambeltz M. ↓, Acuna M. ↑,
66', Alvez J. 🟨,
68', Duarte A. 🟨,
72', Cachi M. ↓, Estoyanoff F. ↑,
77', Perg M. 🟨,
83', 1 - 2, Acuna M. ⚽,
85', Elizari F. ↓, Wunsch N. ↑,
85', Valiente J. ↓, Barco A. ↑,
90+3', Duarte A. ↓, Agazzi L. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fenix won 1.

Recent matches Fenix is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Defensor Sporting is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Defensor Sporting will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Fenix won 8 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 36-27.

Including matches at home between the teams Fenix won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 21-15.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.07.24	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
22.06.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:3 ✺
16.06.24	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:1 ✺
08.06.24	Racing Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:1 ✺
02.06.24	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWLL
- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.07.24	Defensor Sporting - Montevideo Wanderers	1:1 ✺
22.06.24	Racing Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:1 ✺
15.06.24	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:1 ✺
08.06.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Defensor Sporting	0:2 ✺
02.06.24	Defensor Sporting - Miramar Misiones	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
05.05.24	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:2
19.08.23	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1
06.02.23	Defensor Sporting - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:3
20.09.22	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:0
15.04.22	Defensor Sporting - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:1
14.02.21	Defensor Sporting - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:2
21.11.20	Defensor Sporting - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:1

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